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		<title>10 Global Trends to Follow for the Next 18 Months</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/07/10-global-trends-to-follow-for-the-next-18-months/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 06 May 2008 22:14:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Patalon III</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Main Essay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[William Patalon III]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/07/10-global-trends-to-follow-for-the-next-18-months/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By William Patalon III
    Executive Editor
    Money Morning/The Money Map Report
There&#8217;s an old Wall Street adage that tells us that &#34;the  trend is your friend.&#34;
And there&#8217;s a witty bit of wisdom we&#8217;ve developed here at Money  Morning to help guide our readers and us that says: &#34;Go [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By William Patalon III</strong><br />
    <strong>Executive Editor</strong><br />
    <strong>Money Morning/The Money Map Report</strong></p>
<p>There&#8217;s an old Wall Street adage that tells us that &quot;the  trend is your friend.&quot;</p>
<p>And there&#8217;s a witty bit of wisdom we&#8217;ve developed here at <strong><em>Money  Morning</em></strong> to help guide our readers and us that says: &quot;Go global or go  home.&quot;</p>
<p>Combine those two and you&#8217;ll discover that you&#8217;ve got  yourself one very strong investing strategy &#8211; if you choose the right trends,  that is.</p>
<p>Surprisingly, that&#8217;s nowhere near as difficult as most  investors think. All you have to do is to look around you, and study the forces  that are at work in the markets each day. If you do that on a consistent basis,  you&#8217;ll soon discover that no matter what kind of &quot;trick play&quot; the financial  markets throw at you, you&#8217;ll be able to side-step the tackle attempt, will  avoid being thrown for a loss &#8211; and will actually end up scoring some hefty  profits for your portfolio.</p>
<p>To show you what I mean, let&#8217;s take a quick look at the  markets right now&#8230;</p>
<h3>The New World  Disorder</h3>
<p>For decades, America&#8217;s Wall Street was the financial center  of the world, if not the universe. That New York-centric viewpoint was so  pervasive that one of the most-recognizable investment aphorisms to emerge was  the ubiquitous: &quot;When Wall Street sneezes, the rest of the world catches a  cold.&quot;</p>
<p>But as we&#8217;ve all seen during the wild markets we&#8217;ve had to  navigate of late, that&#8217;s not true any longer &#8211; and may never be again.</p>
<p>For the first time in modern history, the U.S. economy finds  itself back with the masses, flying coach instead of first class. We&#8217;ve all  heard the statistics. </p>
<p>For instance:</p>
<ul>
<li>From 2005 to 2010 alone, worldwide wealth  will soar from $118 trillion to more than $200 trillion &#8211; with the newly  capitalist markets of Asia and Europe accounting for the biggest share.</li>
<li> Over  the next 25 years, America&#8217;s share of the worldwide economic pie will slip from  28% to 24%&#8230;</li>
<li> While during that same stretch Asia&#8217;s share  of the global market will almost double &#8211; meaning it will account for a  whopping 55% of the global economy by 2030.</li>
</ul>
<p>But those are just statistics. A confluence of powerful  forces is responsible for those changes. So let&#8217;s take a look at some of the  global trends that are the actual catalysts behind those numbers. </p>
<p>Key among them:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>The       emergence of such new economic heavyweights such as China and India, which       are now competing for the capital, the jobs and the business contracts       that U.S. companies for decades had almost all to themselves.</li>
<li>The       perfection of new telecommunications technologies that are making national       boundaries largely irrelevant from a business standpoint, while also       enabling global corporations to shift labor and capital wherever it&#8217;s       needed around the world.</li>
<li>The       emergence of new capital sources; in particular, the so-called &quot;sovereign       wealth funds&quot; &#8211; the massive state-run pools of investment capital that are       now operating like venture capital funds with a worldwide reach.</li>
<li>A       global credit crisis &#8211; which grew out of a U.S. housing-market bubble &#8211;       that continues to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar.</li>
<li>An       unprecedented escalation in global energy and commodity prices that,       combined with the weak U.S. greenback, is allowing inflationary forces to       take hold in the American market for the first time in nearly three       decades.</li>
</ul>
<p><b>Story continues below&#8230;</b></p>
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<p>Taken at face value, such trends are terribly unsettling for  U.S. consumers and investors alike. And the unease in this country is growing  at an alarming rate. Believe me, we here at <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> know that  as well as anyone. As our team of global investing experts beats the bushes in  search of new trends and new investing opportunities to bring your way, we hear  these concerns voiced over and over again.</p>
<p>We certainly understand folks being worried. After all, with  change comes uncertainty. And uncertainty can breed worry, if not fear.</p>
<p>For those of you who are understandably fearful, I&#8217;ll ask  you to consider one other longtime Wall Street adage: With change comes  opportunity.</p>
<h3>Global Profit  Opportunities Abound</h3>
<p>With all the global changes we see, we also see plenty of  opportunity &#8211; especially for U.S. investors. While I understand if many  investors can only see a burly group of blockers standing between them and the  profits they&#8217;d dearly love to lock in, we here at <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> see a playing field that&#8217;s wide open all the way to the end zone.</p>
<p>All you have to do is call the right plays &#8211; by picking the  right trends. Here are 10 that are worth watching &#8211; and capitalizing on &#8211; as  they play out in the global capital markets at different times over the next 12  months or more.</p>
<ol start="1" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Cash       in on the Cash Barons</u></strong>: Sovereign wealth funds from China and the       Middle East are pouring billions into stocks too many investors would       rather ignore.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="2" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Energize       With Energy</u></strong>: Energy will be a recurrent theme in the months to       come &#8211; and not just in terms of oil and gasoline. Crude oil will remain in       the forefront of the profit plays to come. But that&#8217;s not all: Alternative       energy opportunities such as uranium and so-called &quot;green energy&quot;       investments will benefit from soaring prices for conventional energy       sources. When it comes to these profit plays, it will pay to keep all your       bases covered.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="3" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Buy       into Buyouts</u></strong>: Mergers and acquisitions, management buyouts and       private-equity deals helped fuel the record run in the U.S. stocks in the       first half of 2007. The subprime-mortgage mess and ensuing credit crisis       will make it tougher to do deals in the next 12 months, but the choicest       buyouts still will get done. </li>
</ol>
<ol start="4" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Build       With Biotech</u></strong>: This isn&#8217;t your father&#8217;s biotech sector. No longer       are we talking only about the &quot;Big Pharma&quot; drug-development firms. Some of       the biggest players are now trying to solve the world&#8217;s food and fuel       shortages &#8211; with some notable successes. With special, more-environmentally       friendly herbicides and higher-yielding, genetically engineered crop       seeds, these companies have already engineered big increases in sales and       profits &#8211; and there&#8217;s a lot more to come.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="5" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Home       in on Housing</u></strong>: Housing&#8217;s down, but it&#8217;ll never be out. The turnaround       is still some time off, but this sector isn&#8217;t going to go away. It&#8217;ll take       careful and patient investing to profit here, but keep the sector on your       radar screen &#8211; if for no other reason than to use it as a barometer for       the rest of the currently moribund U.S. economy.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="6" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Invest       in Income</u></strong>: Studies show time and again that income is key to any       portfolio&#8217;s success. And those same studies show that if you call the       dividend play during a bearish market, your portfolio will easily beat       &quot;the spread&quot; &#8211; in this case, the market averages as measured by the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=626307">Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s       500 Index</a> and <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582">Dow       Jones Industrial Average</a>. And if you can&#8217;t decide between stocks or       bonds for income, don&#8217;t flip &#8211; our report covers both sides of the coin.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="7" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Hit       the &quot;BRICs:</u>&quot; </strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC">BRIC</a> is a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGS">GS</a>) acronym for       &quot;Brazil, Russia, India and China.&quot; Three of the four &#8211; Brazil, India and       China &#8211; are not to be ignored in the months to come. After the wild ride       Chinese stocks have provided in recent months, too many U.S. investors are       ready to give up on the Red Dragon. Don&#8217;t make that mistake. We&#8217;ve seen       some life in China&#8217;s stock market in recent days, and there will be plenty       of ways to profit from that emerging economic colossus, some of which       involve only moderate risk<strong>. [To find out how you can obtain a free copy       of investing guru <a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&#038;code=WMMRJ404">Jim       Roger's</a> new bestseller, &quot;<a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&#038;code=WMMRJ404">A       Bull in China</a>,&quot; which details investing strategies for that burgeoning       market, <a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&#038;code=WMMRJ404">please       click here</a>].</strong></li>
</ol>
<ol start="8" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Go       for Gold</u></strong>: The yellow metal has enjoyed a record run. And it&#8217;s       subsequently <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/05/making-sense-of-and-profiting-from-golds-dip-below-850/">dropped       back</a>. But don&#8217;t let that disappoint you: With global demand for       commodities of all kinds soaring, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/six-ways-to-play-money-mornings-prediction-that-gold-is-headed-for-1500-an-ounce/">there&#8217;s       plenty of yardage left on this play</a>. Besides, if inflation escalates       as many experts expect, gold will provide a terrific portfolio hedge.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="9" type="1">
<li><strong><u>Couple       up With Commodities</u></strong>: The gangbusters global growth that&#8217;s causing       gold and crude oil prices to &quot;go long&quot; is having the same effect on such       commodities as wheat, corn and soybeans. Even <a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&#038;code=WMMRJ404">Jim       Rogers</a> says the global demand for commodities is only going to       escalate, meaning this is a play you can call now with a high degree of       confidence and score again and again.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="10" type="1">
<li>&nbsp;<strong><u>Don&#8217;t Give up on the Greenback</u></strong>:       The U.S. dollar has been sinking against virtually every other major       currency, a trend that could well continue for some time to come. That       doesn&#8217;t mean you should ignore the greenback. Run a reverse and look for       ways to profit on its pain. Not only will you score now, you&#8217;ll be focused       in and ready to profit when playing field changes and the U.S. greenback       reverses course on its own run for the end zone.</li>
</ol>
<p>Think of this list as your own personal&nbsp; &quot;mutual fund&quot; of investing strategies. By  mutual fund, I mean that this is a list of potential profit plays that are  worth watching &#8211; and probably investing in &#8211; over the next 12 months to 18  months. Like a mutual fund, it&#8217;s a diverse list, meaning that different trends  will be working for you at different times. But that&#8217;s okay &#8211; it means you&#8217;re  more likely to be involved in whatever trend happens to be hot at the time.</p>
<p>One last point that&#8217;s worth noting: By advocating  investments in food and commodities &#8211; <a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&#038;code=WMMRJ404">the  most controversial of topics right now</a> &#8211; we&#8217;re not talking about acting as  profiteers. We&#8217;re talking about taking steps to protect yourself and your  family from the very real fallout caused by the soaring prices. It&#8217;s a trend  that you cannot stop. But you can take steps to reduce the damage it inflicts  on your family budget, and on your ultimate retirement.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and Related Story Links</u></strong><u>:</u></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Wikipedia</strong>: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC"><br />
  BRIC</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning Special Investment Research Report</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/six-ways-to-play-money-mornings-prediction-that-gold-is-headed-for-1500-an-ounce/">Six       Ways to Play Money Morning&#8217;s Prediction That Gold is Headed for $1,500 an       Ounce</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning Financial Analysis</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/05/making-sense-of-and-profiting-from-golds-dip-below-850/">Making       Sense of (and Profiting from) Gold&#8217;s Dip Below $850 an Ounce.</a>
  </li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning News Analysis:</strong> <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/30/it-takes-a-task-force-the-u.n.s-latest-attempt-to-feed-the-planet/"><br />
  It       Takes a Task Force: The U.N.&#8217;s Latest Attempt to Feed the Planet</a>.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Caterpillar Digs Deep into the Developing World for Profit</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/21/caterpillar-digs-deep-into-the-developing-world-for-profit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/21/caterpillar-digs-deep-into-the-developing-world-for-profit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Apr 2008 11:29:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Simpkins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Jason Simpkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Top News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Economy]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[By  Jason Simpkins
Associate  Editor
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) beat estimates  up and down Wall Street with a 13% jump in first-quarter profit that was  largely driven by booming international sales.
Caterpillar reported net income of $992 million ($1.45 a  share) for the quarter, up from $816 million ($1.23 a share) a year ago. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By  Jason Simpkins<br />
Associate  Editor</strong></p>
<p>Caterpillar Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACAT">CAT</a>) beat estimates  up and down Wall Street with a 13% jump in first-quarter profit that was  largely driven by booming international sales.</p>
<p>Caterpillar reported net income of $992 million ($1.45 a  share) for the quarter, up from $816 million ($1.23 a share) a year ago. Sales  soared 18% to $11.8 billion. International sales rose 30% and accounted for 58%  of total revenue. </p>
<p>&quot;Developing countries maintained expansive  economic policies, which allowed good economic growth to continue,&quot; the company  said in a statement. &quot;As a result, construction increased significantly in many  countries.&quot;</p>
<p>Sales in the Asia Pacific region grew 37% to $1.85 billion  as construction and mining projects came to dominate the landscape overseas. </p>
<p>&quot;Sales volume increased substantially in China,&quot; and sales  growth in India was &quot;sizeable,&quot; the company said. </p>
<p>Caterpillar will look to build on those markets by building  three new factories in China for engines, wheel loaders and parts. It has also  purchased the remaining 60% stake in Shandong SEM Machinery Co., one of  Caterpillar&#8217;s 16 Chinese ventures.</p>
<p>Revenue from Europe, Africa, and the Middle East jumped 30%  to $3.81 billion and Latin American sales were up 24% to 1.23 billion. </p>
<p>Sales in the developing world grew seven times faster than  in North America, where Caterpillar posted a mild 3% sales increase. A weak dollar  and foreign exchange rates added an extra $310 million to international sales. </p>
<p>The world&#8217;s largest manufacturer of bulldozers and  excavators expects earnings to increase by as much as 15% for the full  year.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Shares of Caterpillar jumped more than 8% on the news to  close at $85.04 on Friday.</p>
<p>    <strong><u>News and Related Story Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Caterpillar       Inc.:</strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.cat.com/cda/layout?m=37422&#038;x=7&#038;WT.mc_id=catcom_homefeature_InvestorResults">Quarterly  Results</a><strong></strong></li>
</ul>
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		<title>IMF Warns of Global Economic Slowdown</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/imf-warns-of-global-economic-slowdown/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/imf-warns-of-global-economic-slowdown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Apr 2008 21:36:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Home Page]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Economy]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[By Jennifer Yousfi
  Managing Editor
Global growth will slow to 3.7% in 2008, the International  Monetary Fund announced yesterday (Wednesday), in its most recent World  Economic Outlook.
There is also a 25% chance of a global recession should  economic growth fall below 3% in 2008 or 2009.
The United States will largely be responsible [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Jennifer Yousfi<br />
  Managing Editor</strong></p>
<p>Global growth will slow to 3.7% in 2008, the International  Monetary Fund announced yesterday (Wednesday), in its most recent World  Economic Outlook.</p>
<p>There is also a 25% chance of a global recession should  economic growth fall below 3% in 2008 or 2009.</p>
<p>The United States will largely be responsible for worldwide  deceleration due to the steep correction in the U.S. housing market and  continued fallout from the credit crisis, which started in the subprime sector  and has spread throughout the financial system. </p>
<p>The IMF forecast the U.S. economy would slip into a  recession in 2008, with only a slight recovery in 2009. Its projection for the  United States&rsquo; economic growth in the current year is 0.5% followed by a slight  increase to 0.6% in 2009. </p>
<p>The IMF is predicting nearly all world economies will slow  this year, with the noted exception of the Middle East, which is expected to  increase slightly to 6.1% from 5.8%. </p>
<p><b>Story continues below&#8230;</b></p>
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<p>And while emerging markets such as China will slow, the  Asian nation is still expected to grow at a 9.3% rate, while India is expected  to grow at a 7.9% rate. <strong>[For a full listing of the IMF&rsquo;s economic forecasts,  please see the chart below.]</strong></p>
<p>&quot;The worst is not yet over,&quot; David Bloom, global head of  currency strategy at HSBC Holdings PLC (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AHBC">HBC</a>) in London, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&#038;sid=aXJg7chaTKl4&#038;refer=home">told <strong><em>Bloomberg News</em></strong></a>. &quot;If the IMF predictions prove true, it  demands an urgent policy response to galvanize the world economy.&quot;</p>
<p>IMF Board members agreed that central banks such as the U.S.  Federal Reserve and European Central Bank might be forced to lower interest  rates in a bid to spur economic activity. The Fed has already lowered interest  rates 3% to the current federal funds rate of 2.25% since September.</p>
<p><strong><em><a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/RES040908A.htm">IMF  Survey reported</a></em></strong> that IMF Chief Economist Simon Johnson noted high commodity costs as another  drag on the global economy and said that &quot;the effect of the financial turmoil  in the United States has been to lower the prospects of growth, but, somewhat  paradoxically, it has also increased oil prices, metal prices, and of course  food prices.&quot;</p>
<p>Johnson added that &quot;the increases  in commodity prices create severe inflationary pressures in many countries, and  they make it much harder for monetary and fiscal policy to manage this part of  the global business cycle.&quot; </p>
<p>The World Economic Outlook for April 2008 was released just  one day after the IMF announced that total losses due to the credit crisis  could exceed $945 billion over the next two years.</p>
<p>&quot;These estimates, while based on imprecise information about  exposures and valuation, suggest potential added stress on bank capital and  further writedowns,&quot; the IMF said in its report. &quot;It is now clear that the  current turmoil is more than simply a liquidity event, reflecting deep-seated  balance sheet fragilities and weak capital bases, which means its effects are  likely to be broader, deeper and more protracted.&quot; </p>
<p><img src="http://www.moneymorning.com/images2/worldeconomicgrowth.gif"></p>
<p><strong><u>News and Related Story Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IMF Survey Magazine:<u></u></strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/RES040908A.htm">IMF  Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>MarketWatch:</strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/imf-sees-poor-us-growth/story.aspx?guid=%7B57932562-8DD3-485D-9BA6-E1D03D14A757%7D&#038;dist=hplatest">IMF  sees 25% chance of global recession</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>Bloomberg News:</strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&#038;sid=aXJg7chaTKl4&#038;refer=home">IMF  Urges Stronger U.S., Europe Response to Slowdown</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>MarketWatch:</strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/imf-says-losses-credit-crunch/story.aspx?guid=%7BD939402B%2D29BE%2D4D4F%2DB7DF%2D22447342F8D9%7D">IMF:  Credit crunch losses could approach $1 trillion</a><u></u></li>
</ul>
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