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	<title>Investment News: Money Morning &#187; Italy</title>
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		<title>Italy&#8217;s New Prime Minister Could Bring &#8220;La Dolce Vita&#8221; to Investors</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/22/italys-new-prime-minister-could-bring-la-dolce-vita-to-investors/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/22/italys-new-prime-minister-could-bring-la-dolce-vita-to-investors/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Apr 2008 23:54:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Martin Hutchinson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Martin Hutchinson]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[  By  Martin Hutchinson
  Contributing  Editor
  Italian elections have traditionally been confusing, with one weak center-left  coalition government replacing another. But the election held on April 13-14  was unusual for Italy, as it produced a clear result. What&#8217;s more, that result  gave a majority to the center-right [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>  <strong>By  Martin Hutchinson<br />
  Contributing  Editor</strong></p>
<p>  Italian elections have traditionally been confusing, with one weak center-left  coalition government replacing another. But the election held on April 13-14  was unusual for Italy, as it produced a clear result. What&#8217;s more, that result  gave a majority to the center-right government of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Berlusconi">Silvio Berlusconi</a>. </p>
<p>Berlusconi, a media  billionaire, is pro-U.S. and strongly pro-capitalist. While the forces  preventing free-market reform in Italy are extremely strong, he should at least  be able to make some improvement in Italy&#8217;s economic position, with consequent  benefit to the local stock market. While sensible investors have in the past  avoided Italy, with Berlusconi in office, it might be worth taking another  look.</p>
<p>  There&#8217;s no doubt that Italy has some weaknesses. By European standards, it is  fairly corrupt, ranking 41st on <a href="http://www.transparency.org/">Transparency  International&#8217;s</a> Corruption Perceptions Index, below the other major  European countries (but above such investor magnets as China and India). </p>
<p>Italy has a budget  deficit of 3% of Gross Domestic Product, with too much government spending at  50% of GDP, and far too much government debt at 105% of GDP. The country had  relatively slow economic growth of 1.9% in 2007. </p>
<p>The home to Rome  also has a declining population &#8211; not in itself a problem, but since its social  security system is generous it creates difficulties in funding Italy&#8217;s pension  system. It has suffered badly in the past few years from expensive government  and expensive labor costs, particularly as it is a member of the euro, which  has almost doubled in value against the dollar since 2002.</p>
<p><b>Story continues below&#8230;</b></p>
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<p>  All this would make you think Italy was a basket case, except for one fact: it  has enjoyed very considerable economic growth in the decades after World War II  and again in the 1990s.&nbsp; It&#8217;s a wealthy  country, nearly as wealthy as Britain, France and Germany. And it is famous for  high-end design in the clothing and home furnishings industries. Some of  Italy&#8217;s medium-sized family-owned companies are the best run in the world. </p>
<p>From time to time,  investment in the right Italian companies has made international investors a  lot of money. With expectations low &#8211; the Milan 30 index trades only 30% above  its level of five years ago, and on a price-earnings ratio of a mere 11 &#8211; and  with Berlusconi likely improve the outlook for Italian business, this may well  be such a time.</p>
<p>  There are only a few Italian companies with full <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/adr.asp">American Depositary Receipt</a> (ADR) listings in the United States &#8211;  most of firms choose to concentrate on the London market for their foreign  capital &#8211; but at least a couple of these would appear very interesting  investments. </p>
<p>A list of the  companies easily investable by US individual investors is as follows:</p>
<p>    <strong>ENI SPA (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AE">E</a>):</strong> This firm is Italy&#8217;s entry in the Big Oil stakes. Because of Italy&#8217;s neutral  foreign policy posture, it has the advantage of being able to operate in  countries like Kazakhstan, Libya and Venezuela where U.S. companies often have  difficulty. On a price-earnings ratio of only 8.4% and with a yield of 5.6%, it  currently offers excellent value. Strong buy.</p>
<p>    <strong>Gentium SPA (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=gent&#038;hl=en">GENT</a>):</strong> A small loss-making drug company, which has lost investors 67% of their money  in the last year. Better pass.</p>
<p>    <strong>Luxottica Group SPA (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ALUX">LUX</a>):</strong> A manufacturer of sunglasses with worldwide operations, Luxottica is a  quintessential way to buy into Italy&#8217;s superlative design skills. On 14.7 times  historic earnings, 13.1 times prospective earnings and with a dividend yield of  2.7%, the firm is also reasonably priced. The only caveat would be that a  worldwide recession could badly hit sales of even lower-priced luxury goods.  Still, we think it&#8217;s a buy.</p>
<p>    <strong>Natuzzi SPA (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ANTZ">NTZ</a>):</strong> A medium-sized leather furniture manufacturer, Natuzzi is currently booking  losses and pays no dividend, so maybe not.</p>
<p>    <strong>Telecom Italia SPA (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ti&#038;hl=en">TI</a>):</strong> Italy&#8217;s main fixed line and mobile integrated telephone company, with a P/E  ratio of 11.3 and a historic dividend yield of 10%. However, as those ratings  would suggest, earnings dropped 19% last year on price cuts and heavy  competition and the dividend is now uncovered. There is also talk of a merger  with Spain&#8217;s Telefonica. Speculative.</p>
<p>    <strong>iShares MSCI Italy Index</strong> (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ewi&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">EWI</a>):  And finally, you can buy the Italian market as a whole through this <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp">exchange-traded fund</a> (ETF), which has a reasonable market capitalization of $340 million, a  price-earnings ratio of 11 and a juicy yield of 5.04%.&nbsp; If you&#8217;re excited  by the possibility of economic improvement that the Berlusconi election victory  offers, that is an attractive alternative. Buy.</p>
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