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		<title>The Second Quarter Votes are in: Global Gains Trump Domestic Pains</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/16/global_gains/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Aug 2007 10:06:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Investing]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[By William Patalon III
  And Mike Caggeso
When Deere &#38; Co. yesterday (Wednesday) reported a 23-jump  in quarterly profits, the agricultural-equipment maker said that a 5%  sales slump in its North American market was more than offset by a 30% revenue  gain in the company&#8217;s overseas markets.
The Moline, Ill.-based Deere (NYSE: DE)&#160; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By William Patalon III<br />
  And Mike Caggeso</strong></p>
<p>When Deere &amp; Co. yesterday (Wednesday) reported a <strong><a href="http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-18924037.htm">23-jump  in quarterly profits</a></strong>, the agricultural-equipment maker said that a 5%  sales slump in its North American market was more than offset by a 30% revenue  gain in the company&rsquo;s overseas markets.</p>
<p>The Moline, Ill.-based Deere <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=deere">(NYSE: DE)</a>&nbsp; &ndash; known for its trademark green-and-yellow  farm tractors and earthmoving machinery &ndash; reported worldwide net income of  $537.2 million for the quarter ended July 31 &ndash; the highest total ever for that  quarter in the company&rsquo;s history.</p>
<p>&ldquo;Deere&rsquo;s efforts to grow a great business, particularly with  the support of improving conditions across the global farm sector, are gaining  strong momentum and producing powerful results,&rdquo; said Robert W. Lane, Deere&rsquo;s  chairman and chief executive officer. &ldquo;Advanced new products and services are  helping expand the company&rsquo;s market presence throughout the world.&quot;</p>
<p>It&rsquo;s earnings season, and one very clear trend has emerged:  Global gains trump domestic pains.</p>
<h3>Profiting From a Global Focus</h3>
<p>They peddle fast food, unite happy children with  long-desired Barbie dolls or racy-looking Hot Wheels and Matchbox model cars,  or enable consumers to satisfy a &ldquo;jones&rdquo; with an icy-cold Coca-Cola or zesty  stick of gum. At a time when the U.S. economy is under attack on four fronts &ndash;  taking direct hits from high energy prices, a weak dollar, a housing slump  that&rsquo;s crimping consumer confidence and a credit crunch that&rsquo;s threatening to  destabilize parts of the world financial system &ndash; the U.S. companies that are continuing  to show healthy growth are those that can boast of major businesses abroad. And  with long-term global growth trends expected to persist for years &ndash; if not  decades &ndash; to come, investors seeking U.S. stocks should give first  consideration to globally diversified firms, as opposed to companies that are  focused solely on U.S. markets.</p>
<p>The best performers among the recent spate of corporate  earnings reports only serve to punctuate this point. The companies that have honed a nice international presence &ndash; either across the oceans or at least  outside U.S. borders &ndash; are generally the firms that have turned in the best  results.</p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s take a look at a few of these global knights.</p>
<p>Consider, for instance, Yum! Brands <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=yum&amp;hl=en">(NYSE:YUM)</a> </strong>&mdash;  the former PepsiCo spinoff that now consists of KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long  John Silver and A&amp;W All-American Food Restaurants &mdash; posted second-quarter  profit gain of 11.5%, and then raised its corporate profit target for all of  2007. Success overseas is the main fuel for this financial growth, Chairman and  CEO David Novak said.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&ldquo;This global growth  will contribute to Yum! Brands&rsquo; seventh straight year of opening at least 1,000  new restaurants outside the U.S.,&rdquo; Novak said in company&rsquo;s quarterly  report.&nbsp; </p>
<p>With the <strong><a href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/14/news/companies/mattel/?postversion=2007081511">recent  product recall issues</a></strong>, global toy giant Mattel Inc. <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AMAT">(NYSE:MAT)</a></strong> is  right now <strong><a href="http://www.abcnews.go.com/Health/Consumer/story?id=3482424&amp;page=1">mired  in controversy</a></strong>, and even seems to have lost its way. But just weeks  ago, the company that controls such powerful global brands as Barbie, Hot  Wheels, Matchbox, Tyco R/C vehicles and more managed to post a  bigger-than-expected 13% gain in second-quarter profits. And that was in spite  of a 3% drop in U.S. sales.</p>
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<p>&ldquo;While  the first half is not particularly significant to the highly seasonal toy industry,  our positive results continue to reflect the benefits of our diversified  portfolio of global brands,&rdquo; Mattel Chairman and CEO Robert A. Eckert said of  the company&rsquo;s quarterly&nbsp;financial report.</p>
<p>And  when the company bounces back from its problems, its global reach will help  fuel the rebound.</p>
<p>For companies such as Mattel, the power of its brands is  enough to boost sales in such far-flung markets as Asia, Eastern Europe and  Latin America. Aspiring consumers in those regions have known about these particular  U.S. products for years &ndash; or even decades &ndash; but in many cases had yet to  actually see one up close. And they&rsquo;d never before had the chance to buy any of  these brands.</p>
<p>The <strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/07/02/can-china%e2%80%99s-growth-help-gold-prices-triple/">worldwide  reach and barrier-toppling power of both the Internet and satellite TV</a></strong> has changed all that. Consumers have for years been able to see what American  consumers have. Now that incomes are rising, they can afford to have these  goods imported. And U.S. companies are benefiting.</p>
<p>The shrewdest, and most-aggressive U.S. firms are even  re-shaping their product portfolios to appeal to cultural and local consumer  tastes. Take the Wm.Wrigley Jr. Co. <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=wwy&amp;hl=en">(NYSE:WWY)</a></strong>,  the global maker of chewing gum, mints, candy and other confectionary products. </p>
<p>Wrigley has long been a global company: It gets 33% of its  sales from its home market here in the United States, 45% from the &ldquo;EMEAI&rdquo;  region&nbsp; (company-speak for the Europe,  the Middle East, Africa and India), and 17% from Asia, and the remaining 5%  from its other markets around the world.</p>
<p>The reason this is key:&nbsp;  In the U.S. market last year, a tepid 4% increase in sales volumes led  to an even-more-moribund 3% addition to net sales. In its EMEAI region,  however, a healthy 14% jump in sales volumes caused net sales to soar 27%. And  in Asia, a 21% improvement in sales volumes translated into an even-better  increase in net sales of 23%.</p>
<p>But these global gains didn&rsquo;t just &ldquo;happen&rdquo; &ndash; they were the  result of conscious and methodical moves made by the company, which developed  new products and refocused existing offerings to help make the company more  competitive in key overseas markets. In China, for instance, Wrigley infused  its <strong><a href="http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/92/92701/2007_Spring_Investor_Presentation1.pdf">traditional  products with traditional Chinese medicine to create alternative &ldquo;flavors&rdquo; &mdash;  &ldquo;beauty&rdquo; gum, &ldquo;cooling&rdquo; gum and &ldquo;relaxation&rdquo; gum</a>. </strong>The result:  double-digit growth and runaway market dominance in that product category in  China.</p>
<p>&ldquo;That was some very creative marketing&hellip;very avant-garde,said &rdquo; <strong><a href="http://www.ritmba.com/about_faculty.html?eid=43">Prof. Eugene H. Fram</a></strong>,  the J. Warren McClure Marketing Research Professor for the <strong><a href="http://www.cob.rit.edu/">Rochester Institute of Technology College of  Business</a></strong> in Upstate New York. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s very good marketing in the sense  that Wrigley very effectively worked within its segment and then carefully  picked out its target. That Wrigley was able to find an opportunity within its  segment to create a product that people would buy is a testament to the  company&rsquo;s shrewdness and creativity.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Bill Perez, Wrigley&rsquo;s  president and CEO, said the company&rsquo;s &ldquo;focused investments in key geographies &ndash;  in terms of product innovation and brand support &ndash; are producing excellent  results. All major regions contributed to our growth in the quarter,  particularly Europe and Asia.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Some U.S. companies  have been &ldquo;going global&rdquo; for years. Among the veterans of the international  markets: The Coca-Cola Co. <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ko&amp;hl=en">(NYSE: KO)</a></strong>,  which noted in its second-quarter earnings report that &ldquo;key emerging markets&mdash;including  China, Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa, Eastern Europe and Southern Eurasia  &ndash; all increased at double-digit rates&rdquo; during the quarter.</p>
<h3>Shrugging off the Real Estate Blues</h3>
<p>But if you&rsquo;re a U.S. corporation, global growth isn&rsquo;t a  cure-all for whatever ails you. For example, take Caterpillar Inc. <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACAT">(NYSE: CAT)</a></strong>, the  U.S. industrial stalwart known for its trademark yellow and black earthmoving  equipment. Even though Cat said &ldquo;continued strength outside North America  offsets weakness in on-highway truck engines and North American construction,&rdquo;  it wasn&rsquo;t enough to keep the Peoria, Ill.-based firm&rsquo;s profits from plunging  21%.</p>
<p>First, it showed the trickle effect of the real estate  plague, which has sacked many other industries &mdash; banking, storage, REITs,  automobiles, home supply, furniture, property insurance, department stores,  lumber, hardware and more. It doesn&rsquo;t drag them all down equally, but it&rsquo;s a burden  all would love to shed. </p>
<p>And it again proved that international growth and  development is crucial, especially companies that can&rsquo;t fully sidestep some of  the U.S. economy&rsquo;s current ills.</p>
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		<title>Japan&#8217;s Surprisingly Strong Economy Makes it a Great Global Play</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/15/strong_japanese_economy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/15/strong_japanese_economy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Aug 2007 10:03:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/15/strong_japanese_economy/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Global investors should take heed: Japan's economy continues to be much stronger than it looks.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Martin  Hutchinson</strong><br />
    <strong>Chief  Global Investing Strategist</strong></p>
<p>  Global investors should take heed: Japan&rsquo;s economy  continues to be much stronger than it looks.</p>
<p>When the <strong><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=a1c1Odzc4z70">world&rsquo;s  No. 2 economy reported its second-quarter performance</a></strong> on Monday, the  figures were largely viewed as a disappointment; they showed economic growth of  only 0.1%, or 0.5% on an annualized basis. That&rsquo;s down from a revised growth  rate of 3.2% for the first quarter, and was well below the median estimate of  0.9%, according to a survey of 27 economists surveyed by <strong><u>Bloomberg News</u></strong>.</p>
<p>With growth having slowed even more dramatically than  economists expected, investors are fretting that it&rsquo;s now much less likely that  Japan&rsquo;s  central bankers will boost interest rates when they meet for two days next  week.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, those fretting investors are focusing on the  wrong elements of Japan&rsquo;s  prospects.</p>
<h3>The Case for Japan</h3>
<p>There are <strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/08/simple_investing_secrets/">many  sound strategies for investing internationally</a></strong>. One, which we advocate  wholeheartedly here at Money Morning, is to &ldquo;follow the money&rdquo; &ndash; that is,  ferret out the investment flows that point to the best profit opportunities.  Another is to track what <strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/07/09/jimrogers/">other noted global  investors</a></strong> are doing, and following in their footsteps.</p>
<p>But one of the best is to pick out a country with terrific  prospects, and then look for the best investments that nation has to offer.  This so-called &ldquo;top-down&rdquo; approach to investing can be quite effective.</p>
<p>Especially when the country in question is as solid and promising  as Japan.</p>
<p>In breaking down the second-quarter growth figures, we see  that Japan&rsquo;s  consumption growth slowed from a 3.2% rate in the first quarter to a 1.6% rate  in the second. Private-sector investment, on the other hand, was strong; it  grew at a 4.8% annualized pace, up from 1.2% in the first quarter. (Don&rsquo;t  forget that Japan &ndash; unlike the United States &ndash; has no population growth, so a  2% growth rate in Japan is reflective of real growth; whereas in the U.S.  market, a 2% economic growth rate represents true growth of only 1% &ndash; net of  the 1% annual growth in the American population.)</p>
<p>Thus, in many respects, Japan&rsquo;s  economic position is the reverse of the U.S. economic position of 2005.  Whereas U.S. consumption in  2005 was strong, it&rsquo;s actually fairly weak in Japan, growing no faster than the  overall economy. Conversely, whereas the U.S.  economy of 2005 had to struggle against weak investment totals, investment in Japan today is  quite strong, as this key Asian nation re-equips itself after 15 years of recession.</p>
<p>Housing, too, was a strong contributor to the U.S. economy&rsquo;s  overall vitality in 2005. But in Japan, it is very weak today, with  private residential investment down in the second quarter at an annual rate of  12%.</p>
<p>In terms of government spending &ndash; always an interesting area  to analyze &ndash; the United States  of 2005 and Japan  of today are uncannily once again mirror images of one another. Whereas public  spending was increasing rapidly in the United   States in 2005, it is flat in Japan, where public investment  actually plunged by an 8.4% annual rate in the second quarter. This accounts  for much of the decline in GDP growth, and reflects the tight fiscal policy in  the Japanese budget propounded by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the beginning of  the year. </p>
<p>Public-spending restraint is never popular, but in Japan&rsquo;s case it  is vital to rebuild public finances, and to allow the private economy to  increase at a healthy rate. One of Japan&rsquo;s major problems in the 1990s  was that the rapidly expanding public sector was growing faster than the  economy, leaving little or no room for private-sector expansion. This position  is now reversing, as the public sector shrinks its share of the economy and the  private sector correspondingly expands. Japan still has public debt of  about 160% of GDP, but most of that is held in various domestic savings funds.</p>
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<h3>Some Top Plays on Japan</h3>
<p>So it depends what you like. If you like a country where  people spend more than they earn, government expands more rapidly than the  economy, house prices and investment roar ahead and business investment is  sluggish because of massive overbuilding in a bubble a few years earlier,  you&rsquo;ll prefer the 2005 version of the United States.</p>
<p>If, on the other hand, you prefer a country where people  save, private consumption is restrained, housing is subdued, the government is  keeping a tight rein on wasteful spending, and business investment is booming  after a 15-year recession, you&rsquo;ll prefer Japan. It&rsquo;s all a question of  investor tastes.</p>
<p>I know which way my tastes run. For those who agree with me  &ndash; and who like to carefully manage their risk &ndash; I would suggest the  streetTracks SmallCap Japan ETF <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=jsc&amp;hl=en">(AMEX: JSC</a>).</strong> As this illustrates, on the whole I prefer smaller companies, which can benefit  from continued growth in the Japanese economy without being buffeted by  international problems. But there are some very interesting larger plays, too.</p>
<p>Of the larger companies, Toyota Motor Corp. <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=gm&amp;hl=en">(NYSE-TM)</a> </strong>warrants  a close look, if only because it&rsquo;s trading at a very modest 13 times earnings &ndash;  and because it&rsquo;s steadily eating the global lunch of U.S. stalwarts General  Motors Corp. <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=gm&amp;hl=en">(NYSE:  GM)</a></strong> and Ford Motor Co<strong>. <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AF">(NYSE: F)</a></strong>. It&rsquo;s  also worth taking a very close look at Canon Inc<strong>. <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACAJ">(NYSE: CAJ</a>)</strong>;  while it&rsquo;s true that this stock is trading at 30 times earnings, which is  expensive, remember that Japanese shares historically trade at rather steep  valuations.</p>
<p>For the truly adventurous, consider a look at Omron Corp.,  the world&rsquo;s leader in fuzzy logic control systems, a business we don&rsquo;t really  have in the West. Alas, in the U.S.  market, Omron is quoted only on the pink sheets <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=PINK%3AOMRNY">(OTC: OMRNY)</a></strong>.  But it does trade actively in both Frankfurt and Tokyo <strong><a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TYO%3A6645">(TYO: 6645).</a> </strong></p>
<p>[Once again we&rsquo;ve come across a solid overseas stock that U.S. investors  can&rsquo;t easily access. Money Morning newcomers would do well to spend a few  minutes checking out two recent research reports: <strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/06/27/the-key-secrets-to-global-growth-profits/">&ldquo;Global  Investing: Has Wall Street Rigged the Game?&rdquo;</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/06/25/international-investing-why-us-investors-are-%e2%80%9cboxed-out%e2%80%9d-of-big-global-profits/">&ldquo;International  Investing: Why U.S. Investors are &lsquo;Boxed Out&rsquo; of Big Global Profits.&rdquo;</a> </strong>Both  reports are available for downloading directly from the Money Morning web site.  And, naturally, both are free of charge.]</p>
<h3>Japan: A Play on China</h3>
<p>Lastly, whenever you discuss the investment allure of Japan, there&rsquo;s also the question of China. As we  know, China has a bright long-term future. But share prices have been on a  torrid run for an awfully long stretch, which I believe substantially elevates  risk. Japan is a solid investment in its own right, for all the reasons we&rsquo;ve  articulated [If you&rsquo;d like additional reasons, you absolutely must check out  our 6,000-word investment research report: <strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/?cat=12">&ldquo;Global Investing: The Three Best  Investments in Asia Today.&rdquo;</a> </strong>It, too, is available at no cost to  subscribers to our free Money Morning global investing news service.] But, for  the risk-averse, <strong><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=auA945AfBG4A">Japan  is a solid indirect play on China</a></strong> (as are the other two markets we  detail in our Asia research report). Many of Japan&rsquo;s major manufacturing  companies have established operations in Mainland China, which offers such  benefits as lower wages and a close proximity to the headquarters operations of  the big firms.</p>
<p><em><strong>Martin O. Hutchinson</strong> is the Chief Global Investing Strategist for </em><strong>Money Morning</strong><em>, as well as an advisory panelist for </em><strong>The  Money Map Report</strong><em>. An investment banker with more than 25 years&rsquo;  experience, Hutchinson has worked on both Wall Street and Fleet Street and is a  leading expert on the international financial market.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Global Crisis Investing and a Grandmother&#8217;s Advice</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/14/global_crisis-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/14/global_crisis-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Aug 2007 04:58:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Contrarian Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment Secrets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Main Essay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Central Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/14/global_crisis-2/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald
  Contributing Editor
Whenever I&#8217;m faced with a market like this one &#8211; rocky and volatile,  with hidden wildcards just waiting to trip us up &#8211; I can&#8217;t help but think about  my late grandmother, successful amateur investor Virginia Gruner, and the  warning she would issue in just these situations: [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith Fitz-Gerald<br />
  Contributing Editor</strong></p>
<p>Whenever I&rsquo;m faced with a market like this one &ndash; rocky and volatile,  with hidden wildcards just waiting to trip us up &ndash; I can&rsquo;t help but think about  my late grandmother, successful amateur investor Virginia Gruner, and the  warning she would issue in just these situations: &ldquo;Hold onto your bippies!&rdquo;</p>
<p>As I sit here and stare at my trading screens this afternoon (Monday) &ndash;  watching as central banks around the world inject billions into the global  economy in an effort to blunt the effects of the spiraling credit crisis &ndash; I  can just hear my grandmother issue her ever-so-familiar warning.</p>
<h3><strong>The Greatest Investor  I&rsquo;ve Ever Known</strong></h3>
<p>You see, my grandmother was a super-successful amateur investor.&nbsp; She&rsquo;d spent most of her adult life managing  her household, the wife of a highly successful insurance-industry executive (my  grandfather). When her husband died, my grandmother found that her family&rsquo;s own  finances were in disarray. So with characteristic commitment, and with a  resolve I always admired, she set out to become a successful investor. She  became one of the smartest individual investors most of us will ever see &ndash; and,  actually, one of the best investors of any kind I have ever known.</p>
<p>My grandmother then set out to pass that &ldquo;gift&rdquo; along &ndash; to me. Starting  when I was a teenager, she made sure that I always had the entire <strong><u>Value  Line</u></strong> investment research series, and annual subscriptions to such  leading publications as <strong><u>Business Week</u></strong> and <strong><u>Forbes</u></strong>.  She wasn&rsquo;t forcing this on me, mind you, but rather was sharing it with me &ndash;  and in a way that made me want to learn all that I could, and be as successful  at this wonderfully engaging pursuit as my grandmother.</p>
<p>Yesterday&rsquo;s late-afternoon trading patterns suggest that her bit of  wisdom may somehow be fitting to keep in mind over the next few days. I&rsquo;m now  hearing from traders based both here in the United States and around Europe  that the $275 billion injected into the world economies by the global central  banks may not be enough.</p>
<p>And, yet, Asia&rsquo;s traders seem placated.<br />
  &nbsp;<br />
  So, what gives?</p>
<p>I honestly don&rsquo;t know. But here&rsquo;s what my experience tells me should be  happening &ndash; as well as what&rsquo;s actually happening.</p>
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<h3>The Global Realities</h3>
<p>Somehow, the Euros and Americans don&rsquo;t trust the system. They think that  Monday&rsquo;s rally is nothing more than a continuation of the short covering and  limited bottom fishing that began Friday on the heels of nearly $275 billion in  central bank liquidity injections</p>
<p>They&rsquo;ve got a bad case of:&nbsp;&ldquo;I&rsquo;ll  believe it when I see it.&rdquo; And investors seemingly want the ECB and Fed to drop  rates as a sign of good faith that things are truly behind us. Yesterday, in  fact, I saw no fewer than 20 different news stories, research reports, and  market essays from various people suggesting that a &ldquo;Fed rate cut is in the  bag&rdquo; &ndash; which makes me suspect all the more that it isn&rsquo;t.</p>
<p>Asian traders, on the other hand, seem to think that the massive amounts  of money shot into the system was enough to fix the problem.</p>
<p>It&rsquo;s the way that the Asian markets are trading that leads me to draw  this conclusion &ndash; that, of course, plus the 20-plus years I&rsquo;ve spent in and  around the Asian markets.</p>
<p>The Japanese and Chinese in particular have a different cultural  framework than we rely on here in the West. As a result, the Japanese have a  sort of implicit trust in the government as a benevolent entity while the  Chinese view it as a strict leader to be obeyed&hellip;maneuvered, but obeyed  nonetheless. There are, of course, finer points to each but those are more  academic than anything else.</p>
<p>In more practical terms, based on how the two camps (the West vs. Asia)  appear to be divided in their trading philosophy right now, what we as  individual investors are left with is a dichotomy: Roughly half the world&rsquo;s  financial system wants more &ldquo;liquidity,&rdquo; while the other half seems content  with what it&rsquo;s got.</p>
<h3>Really Time to Go Global</h3>
<p>So, who&rsquo;s right and what does it mean for us?</p>
<p>That remains to be seen. I&rsquo;m personally of the opinion that we have a  long way to go before the extent of the damage is truly recognized. There will  undoubtedly be some big names on the chopping block in the weeks to come as  more light is shed on this messy credit situation. Some of these revelations will  have been anticipated. But others will be huge surprises, and could well roil  the markets.</p>
<p>Either way, this suggests to me that individual investors have yet  another reason to focus at least part of their financial strategies on global  investing (Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel recently said that an international  allotment of under 40% was a &ldquo;disservice,&rdquo; as well as a recipe for substantial  underperformance).</p>
<p>That said, it&rsquo;s clearly not enough any more to diversify by country  because most of the countries, as so many people found out last week, are  inextricably linked at the central banking level.</p>
<p>Therefore, it is vitally important to take a different approach that  both lessens your risk and heightens your potential returns. Part of that  approach includes lining up your money with the virtually unstoppable trends of  our time. The other part suggests &ldquo;an offensive defense&rdquo; may be more  appropriate now more than ever.</p>
<p>Last week&rsquo;s financial shenanigans have clearly changed the rules of the  game &ndash; yet again.</p>
<p>As I reason this all through, I can&rsquo;t help but consider what my  grandmother would say about this situation. The best revenge, of course, is to  take advantage of all possible profit opportunities. But we all know that these  next few weeks could be highly volatile, which either connotes danger or  opportunity &ndash; depending upon your viewpoint.</p>
<p>So brace yourself for still more volatility (&ldquo;hold onto your bippies!&rdquo;).  Then capitalize on whatever opportunities the financial markets throw at you.  Look especially closely at global investment opportunities, but don&rsquo;t be afraid  to be opportunistic domestically, either. Be bold, but not reckless.</p>
<p>And have at it!</p>
<p>Good Investing to us all.</p>
<p>&nbsp;Keith Fitz-Gerald</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Three Simple Secrets to Global Investing Profits</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/08/simple_investing_secrets/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/08/simple_investing_secrets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2007 16:17:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Contrarian Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Markets]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Alsaud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/08/simple_investing_secrets/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By William Patalon III
  Managing Editor
&#8220;The  Prince&#8221; has targeted China&#8217;s booming hotel sector.
  If  you&#8217;re a confirmed Contrarian, like me, or are merely an avid investor, you  already know that I&#8217;m talking about Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Alsaud, the  shrewdest and most-successful investor to come out of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By William Patalon III</strong><br />
  Managing Editor</p>
<p>&#8220;The  Prince&#8221; has targeted China&#8217;s booming hotel sector.</p>
<p>  If  you&#8217;re a confirmed Contrarian, like me, or are merely an avid investor, you  already know that I&#8217;m talking about Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Alsaud, the  shrewdest and most-successful investor to come out of the Middle East. Prince  Alwaleed is best known for the $590 million he invested in Citicorp back in  early 1991, an outlay that saved the struggling U.S. banking giant &#8211; and that  netted the prince a fortune.</p>
<p>  Prince  Alwaleed&#8217;s subsequent financial triumphs are too numerous to list here, but  suffice it to say he&#8217;s become an investing legend. And now he&#8217;s back in action  again: The prince is searching for investment bargains in China&#8217;s burgeoning  hotel sector and has a $1 billion kitty to help finance this latest foray,  according the<strong> </strong>latest issue of <u>Forbes.com</u>.</p>
<p>  I&#8217;m  bringing this story to your attention for several reasons &#8211; and my objective  with every single one of them is to make you a better investor, with a greater  propensity for making profits.<br />
  Let  me explain;.</p>
<h3><strong>The  Three Pathways to Profits</strong></h3>
<p>  If  someone offered to tell you how you could profit with virtually every  investment you make, would you listen? While I can&#8217;t quite make that claim, I  can offer several bits of wisdom that will tip the odds well into your favor.  And the story about Prince Alwaleed&#8217;s latest business venture reminded me of  most of them. </p>
<p>  To  be the very best investor you can be:</p>
<ul>
<li>Follow the money, and not the crowd.</li>
<li>Watch the moves the &#8220;real&#8221; experts are making.</li>
<li>And whenever possible, go global.</li>
</ul>
<p>If  you think that these snippets of wisdom are overly simplistic, you&#8217;ll one day  discover that the best profit strategies usually are. Let&#8217;s start by studying why  it&#8217;s dangerous to follow the crowd;</p>
<h3><strong>What  Goes Up Can Also Come Down;</strong></h3>
<p>  While  researching my book <strong><u><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Contrarian-Investing-Anthony-M-Gallea/dp/0735200009/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/105-1891087-3549230?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1186533550&amp;sr=8-2">Contrarian Investing</a></u> </strong><strong><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Contrarian-Investing-Anthony-M-Gallea/dp/0735200009/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/105-1891087-3549230?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1186533550&amp;sr=8-2"></a></strong><strong> </strong>back in the middle 1990s, my co-author and I made an  interesting discovery: Probability research demonstrated that, as a group,  stocks that have run up a very long way are more likely to decline than to  continue their run. Conversely, stocks that &#8211; again as a group &#8211; have fallen a  long way are more likely to reverse course and -rise. If you take a moment to  really think that through, the concept makes a ton of intuitive sense.</p>
<p>  Indeed,  that&#8217;s really the entire philosophical basis for the discipline of Contrarian  Investing. Members of &#8220;the crowd&#8221; are more likely to buy the stocks that everyone  else is buying &#8211; the ones that are soaring right now. And the investing masses  are just as likely to avoid the ones that have fallen. But it&#8217;s the stocks that  have fallen that offer the biggest profit potential, while the shares that are  trading at stratospheric levels are the riskiest ones to own. Simply put, the  high-priced shares are the most prone to a big decline.</p>
<p>  If  you follow one of our other key strategies and search out newly developing  money-flow trends, you can spotlight investments that either haven&#8217;t risen yet,  or are just starting to rise. And you&#8217;ll pocket the biggest share of the  profits when those shares take off, with the accelerating money flows acting as  the fuel.</p>
<h3><strong>Watch  the &#8220;Real&#8221; Experts</strong></h3>
<p>  If  you have a tough time using this kind of analysis to ferret out such  opportunities, take the next best approach and watch what the acknowledged  experts are doing. As an avowed Contrarian, I tend to favor value-oriented  investors, including such folks as:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/070729/6buffett.htm">Warren Buffett</a>, </strong>the  so-called &#8220;Oracle of Omaha<strong> </strong><strong><a href="http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/070729/6buffett.htm"></a></strong><strong> </strong>(If you want to read a terrific book that really illustrates  how this super-investor operates, and is also a fascinating biography, take a  look at Roger Lowenstein&#8217;s: <u><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Buffett-American-Capitalist-Roger-Lowenstein/dp/0385484917/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/105-1891087-3549230?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1186534358&amp;sr=1-2">Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist</a></u>.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/29690">Bill Miller</a>, </strong>manager  of the Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund, and a fascinating and genuinely  decent guy who I interviewed many times during my business journalist days  (though I was never able to persuade him that Eastman Kodak Co. was a misguided  play. Still, any investor who&#8217;s a genius, but is still a regular guy who enjoys  shooting the breeze at a cocktail party, is aces in my book).</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/07/09/jimrogers/">Jim Rogers</a></strong>,  TV personality, world adventurer, author of such best-sellers as <strong><u>Investment  Biker</u></strong>, and a noted Contrarian who was kind enough to allow my co-author  and me to adapt one of his terrific essays for the &#8220;forward&#8221; for our <strong><u>Contrarian  Investing</u></strong> book. Check out <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/07/09/jimrogers/">the piece I wrote about Rogers</a> just  last month,  and make note of <a href="http://www.jimrogers.com/">the new book</a> he has coming out late this year.</li>
<li><strong>Prince Alwaleed, </strong>whose  career I&#8217;ve followed since he purchased those Citicorp (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c">NYSE: C</a>) <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c"></a>shares  at a split-adjusted price in the $1.50 to $1.75 range. His timing was so  perfect, and his windfall so massive, that I used his Citicorp investment as a  key case study in the <strong><u>Contrarian Investing</u></strong> book. The shares of  the largest U.S. financial-services firm closed yesterday (Wednesday) at $49.49  each.</li>
</ul>
<p>There are others, as well, but I was  merely trying to provide a representative overview. You might well have in mind  other investors whose style or philosophy is more in tune with your own  approach. That&#8217;s actually a smart way to go: If you&#8217;re not comfortable with a  strategy, you won&#8217;t stick with it. And changing horses in mid-stream can only  lead to you taking an unwanted soaking.</p>
<p>Story continues below&#8230;<br />
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<h3><strong> Go Global</strong></h3>
<p>If you only take one  lesson away from this report, make sure it&#8217;s this: International investments  are no longer a nice bit of diversification, or a way to &#8220;spice up&#8221; your  portfolio. They&#8217;re a necessity. You go global &#8211; or you get left behind.</p>
<p>  Best-selling  author and famed Wharton Business School Professor Jeremy Siegel recently  pronounced that the long-held conventional wisdom on international investing  should be thrown out the window. For decades, we&#8217;ve heard over and over how  international investments should comprise 5%, 10% or at most 15% of our  portfolio&#8217;s total value. Any more than that is foolhardy and risky, we were  programmed to believe.</p>
<p>  But  according to Siegel, the truly foolhardy act is to limit our international  exposure that much. In other words, the biggest risk we now face isn&#8217;t just the  possibility of losses incurred when some foreign market plunges. The real risk  now is the possibility U.S. investors face &#8211; getting left behind financially  because most of the major global growth that will come in the decades ahead  will be generated outside U.S. borders &#8211; by such countries as China, Japan,  Taiwan, Korea and Brazil. We&#8217;ll even eventually start to see growth from such  countries as <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/07/03/the-market-that-will-emerge-after-the-emerging-markets/">Vietnam</a>.<br />
  Investment  advisors who stick with the old asset-allocation model are actually doing their  clients a huge disservice, Siegel says.</p>
<p>  Siegel  now believes that international investments should comprise about 40% of your  total holdings. Most individual investors know Siegel for his best-selling  book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Jeremy-Siegel/dp/0071494707/ref=pd_bbs_sr_4/002-1019342-9804060?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1184345815&amp;sr=8-4">Stocks  for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and  Long-Term Investment Strategies</a>. The book first came out in 1994,  and is considered one of a handful of &#8220;must-read&#8217; titles in investing finance.  But when the fourth edition appears in December, there will be something new to  look at: This edition will include a long addition addressing the international  arena, and how investors must adapt their strategies to the new realities of  globalization.</p>
<p>  And  Siegel isn&#8217;t alone in this assertion that global growth is a huge investment  opportunity. From 2005 to 2010 alone, the worldwide value of all financial  assets &#8211; stocks, bonds, CDs and other investments &#8211; will soar from $118 trillion  to $200 trillion, according to projections made by the McKinsey Global  Institute in a just-released report.</p>
<p>  That&#8217;s  an increase of $82 trillion, or 69%Â  &#8211;  and in only five years. And a big portion of that increase will be realized  outside U.S. borders. The longer-term projections are even more sobering for  investors who have traditionally held themselves to a &#8220;U.S.-only&#8221; investment  strategy. Consider some statistics recently released by the World Bank and  several other researchers.</p>
<p>  Right  now, Asia and the United States each account for about 28% of the worldwide  economy. Forecasters say that the U.S. share of the global marketplace will  slip a bit, dropping back to 24% by 2030.<br />
  But  Asia&#8217;s share of the worldwide market will double during that same stretch, reaching  a staggering 55% by 2030. <u>Think about it this way: The Asia of tomorrow will  be twice as powerful as the United States is today</u>.</p>
<p>  It&#8217;s  a transition that&#8217;s too powerful to stop. But the next best thing we can do to  protect our futures and to advance this country&#8217;s standard of living is to  personally profit from these trends. It&#8217;s the greatest wealth-producing  opportunity most of us will ever see. Climb aboard. Or get left at the station.</p>
<p>  The  nation&#8217;s wealthy already really understand what&#8217;s at stake and are already  profiting from these trends &#8211; and in a big way. According to a study by the  Spectrem Group, 40% of affluent U.S. households are continuing to invest  internationally, while a full third are actually planning to invest more. Their  chief country of choice when it comes to investing abroad: China.</p>
<h3><strong>Alwaleed  Redux</strong></h3>
<p>  With  the $1 billion he reportedly has earmarked for the purchase of hotels in China,  Prince Alwaleed has essentially been kind enough to make my case for me. And  please note that this isn&#8217;t a standalone foray: It&#8217;s just the latest piece of a  broad strategy in which he&#8217;s positioning himself to profit from the newly  capitalist markets emerging around the world.</p>
<p>  According  to the <u><a href="http://www.forbes.com">Forbes.com</a></u> report, Prince Alwaleed is aiming to buy 10-15  hotels in some of China&#8217;s small- or even medium-sized cities over the next  three to five years. The investments will be managed by his hotel-investment  operation, Kingdom Hotel Investments, which is listed in both London and <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/01/dubai_private_equity/">Dubai</a><strong>.</strong></p>
<p>  Forbes.com  based its report on a story that ran in this week&#8217;s <em>Shanghai Securities  News, </em>which interviewed Sarmad Zok, the CEO of KHI.</p>
<p>  KHI  is looking to acquire &#8220;mature&#8221; properties in China&#8217;s second- and third-tier  cities, where growth rates will even exceed the quick pace of the  already-soaring national economy, Zok was reported to have said.</p>
<p><strong><u>Forbes</u></strong><strong> </strong>lists  Prince Alwaleed as the world&#8217;s <a href="http://www.forbes.com/lists/2007/10/07billionaires_Prince-Alwaleed-Bin-Talal-Alsaud_0RD0.html">13th-richest  billionaire</a>, with a net worth of $20.3 billion. He has an affinity for the  hotel business: He recently announced that he and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft">MSFT</a>)  founder  Bill gates would take the famed Four Seasons Hotels private for $3.8 billion.</p>
<p>Forbes.com also  noted that Prince Alwaleed&#8217;s recent foray into China&#8217;s hotel market  follows a profit windfall reaped from a series of Chinese IPOs. Indeed, the  magazine said the prince <a href="http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/12/01/china-ipo-investors-biz-cx_jc_1201chinaipo.html.">&#8220;became a habitual investor&#8221;</a> in these deals,  including the public offerings of China Merchant Bank, Industrial and  Commercial Bank of China and China Communications Construction</p>
<p>  And  if you go back to my three central investing rules, Prince Alwaleed is clearly  telling us that China is a market with such immense long-term potential that  U.S investors can&#8217;t afford to avoid.<br />
  <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/contributors/">William (Bill</a></em></strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/contributors/"><strong><em>) Patalon III</em></strong></a><strong><em></em></strong><em> is the <strong>Managing Editor </strong>and<strong> Senior Research Analyst</strong> for <strong>Money  Morning</strong>, and is also the <strong>Managing Editor</strong>for<strong> The Money Map Report.</strong> A published author, Patalon is an award-winning  journalist with 22 years experience that included stints with <strong>Gannett Co.  Inc</strong>. and <strong>The Baltimore Sun</strong>. He has an MBA in finance from the Rochester  Institute of Technology. </em></p>
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