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		<title>Insights on Income: Foreign Markets are a Necessary Profit Play for Today&#8217;s Income Investor</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/07/14/insights-on-income-foreign-markets-are-a-necessary-profit-play-for-todays-income-investor/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jul 2008 23:22:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Martin Hutchinson</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Income Investing]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Martin Hutchinson]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[    By Martin Hutchinson
    Contributing  Editor
     
  Back in the middle  1980s, income investing for U.S. investors was pretty simple. Inflation was  around 5% &#8211; roughly the same as now &#8211; but U.S. government bonds were paying  close to 8%, and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>    <strong>By Martin Hutchinson</strong><br />
    <strong>Contributing  Editor</strong><br />
    <strong><u> <br />
  </u></strong>Back in the middle  1980s, income investing for U.S. investors was pretty simple. Inflation was  around 5% &#8211; roughly the same as now &#8211; but U.S. government bonds were paying  close to 8%, and without going into high-risk debt issues you could find 9%  with very little difficulty.</p>
<p>If you were an  income investor, to balance those high yields, you also had to have capital  appreciation, so about half your portfolio would be invested in U.S. common  stocks &#8211; which, thanks to their dividend payouts, yielded a good 3%-4%  themselves. Even after you paid Uncle Sam, a portfolio such as this one would  have easily thrown off 5% of its value in income, and allowed you to keep up  with inflation as stock prices generally rose.</p>
<p>Clearly, those were  the halcyon days for income investing.</p>
<p>More than two  decades later, income investors face a much bigger challenge. U.S. stocks have  posted mediocre results since 2000, while bonds and cash have provided truly  lousy returns after inflation and taxes are taken into account. Stocks pay  lower dividends than they used to, especially since top corporate executives  now are loaded up with stock options, and those decline in value every time a  dividend payout extracts a big slug of cash from the corporate coffers.</p>
<p>The  bottom line: While stock prices, interest rates, and inflation are at current  levels, and U.S. economic growth remains sluggish, income investors who focus  only on domestic income investments will be lucky to break even in cash terms  after they have attempted to live on 5% of their capital.</p>
<p>There  is a solution, however. In fact, this particular income strategy can offer much  better returns than anything a domestic income investor can ever hope to find.  We&#8217;re talking, of course, about investing internationally. Most investors think  of the international markets only as another place to seek out stocks. But  overseas financial markets are a great option for income investing, as well.  And here&#8217;s why.</p>
<h3>The Overseas Option for Income Investors</h3>
<ul type="disc">
<li>The United States continues to run an       annual balance-of-payments deficit of $700 billion. As long as that       persists, the dollar will tend to be weak against other currencies.       Sometimes, even low-risk investments in the right foreign currency can       provide substantial capital gains &#8211; and it&#8217;s not always the obvious       currencies. Did you know you could have made more than 30% in dollar terms       during the past year from a bank deposit in Czech crowns? And that wasn&#8217;t       some wild investing gambit: These days, the Czech Republic is a perfectly       solid middle-income democratic European Union member with an admirable       free-market president, <a target=_blank href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V%C3%A1clav_Klaus">Vaclav Klaus</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Because U.S. interest rates are so low,       many countries have higher interest rates &#8211; with lower rates of inflation.       Australian, Brazilian, and New Zealand bank deposits all pay more than 5%.       All three currencies have recently been strong against the dollar and will       likely continue to perform so. And all three of those economies have       inflation rates that are comparable to, or lower than, the United States&#8217;       rate of inflation (South Africa also has 8% deposit rates, but there inflation       is too high for safety).</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li>While the U.S. economy scuffles along at       a 1% pace &#8211; and even if it were to recover to 3% &#8211; there are a number of       countries with growth rates of 5% or greater, not all of which have       overvalued stock markets. China and India famously have growth rates of       9%-10%, but what about South Korea and Taiwan?  Both are richer countries with growth       rates consistently in the 5%-6% range. By definition, if stocks in those       countries are no more expensive than in the United States, they are likely       to offer better value.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Many stocks outside the United States       pay generous dividends, often because they are still controlled by the       original founding families who want the income, or because these firms are       based in companies with are located in countries with good-value stock       markets.</li>
</ul>
<h3>International Income Investing: The Secrets of Success</h3>
<p>For income investors  seeking dividends from international investments, the secret is to find  companies with high dividend yields, but which aren&#8217;t operating in the kind of  risky or highly cyclical business sectors that will make those dividends  vulnerable.</p>
<p>In other words, what you don&#8217;t want to see is a situation  where you buy into a stock for its hefty dividend yield &#8211; only to have the  board of directors of that company suddenly decide that it needs to conserve  cash. For instance, Telecomunicacoes de  Sao Paulo SA (ADR: <a target=_blank href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=tsp">TSP</a>),  the fixed-line telephone system in Sao Paulo, Brazil, has a dividend yield of  no less than 14%. However the company&#8217;s profit margins are under attack by the  aggressive cellphone operators in the country and its earnings seem likely to  decline. Indeed, the consensus forecast for TSP&#8217;s 2008 earnings is about 30%  less than the dividend payout, suggesting that dividends will be forced  downward &#8211; unless the company starts liquidating itself.</p>
<p>  Some current recommendations that have good dividend payouts that are also  securely covered by earnings:
</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Kookmin Bank (ADR: <a target=_blank href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=kb&#038;hl=en">KB</a>)</strong>:  The largest bank in South Korea, Kookmin has a dividend yield of 4.6% and a  Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 8.0. Kookmin has avoided an  entanglement in the U.S. subprime-mortgage mess, but has nevertheless been  dragged down by investor disillusionment with the financial services sector.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>Acer Inc.: </strong>Based in Taiwan, Acer is now the<strong> </strong>world&#8217;s  third-largest manufacturer of PCs, with a global market share that reached 10%  since its 2007 purchase of Gateway. Although there are several ways to invest  in this company, this is best bought through its Global Depositary Receipts,  which are listed on the London stock exchange (<a target=_blank href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3AACID">ACID</a>). Acer has a  dividend yield of 6.4% and a P/E ratio of only 11.0 &#8211; pretty alluring numbers  for a leader in a major growth sector.
</li>
<li><strong>Tele Norte Leste  Participacoes SA</strong> (ADR: <a target=_blank href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=tne&#038;hl=en">TNE</a>): Also known  as TNE, Brazil&#8217;s cellphone compay has a yield of 4.8% and is trading at  about seven times earnings.</li>
</ul>
<p>One final note: Income investing is all too often viewed as  a stodgy, no-growth strategy for the total risk-averse. But as Acer and TNE  demonstrate, you don&#8217;t need to confine yourself to stodgy, low-growth sectors  to get a juicy dividend yield with good security. You just have to look  globally.</p>
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<p>[<strong><u>Editor's Note</u></strong>: When it comes to global income  issues, <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson knows  his stuff.  An investment banker with  more than 25 years' experience, Hutchinson has worked on both Wall Street and  Fleet Street and is a leading expert on the international financial markets. In  February 2000, as an advisor to the Republic of Macedonia, Hutchinson figured  out how to restore the life savings of 800,000 Macedonians, who had been  stripped of nearly $1 billion by the breakup of Yugoslavia - and then the  Kosovo War. Hutchinson's "<em>Insights on Income</em>" column will now be a  regular feature in <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong>].</p>
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