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	<title>Investment News: Money Morning &#187; Eurozone</title>
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		<title>Eurozone Growth Revised Down as Inflationary Pressures Trump Economic Growth</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/07/09/eurozone/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/07/09/eurozone/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jul 2008 19:57:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Simpkins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Eurozone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Simpkins]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/07/09/eurozone-growth-revised-down-as-inflationary-pressures-trump-economic-growth/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Jason Simpkins
  Associate  Editor
First-quarter growth in the 15-nation Eurozone was weaker  than first reported, yet another worrying development for a region already  struggling with soaring inflation.
The combined Eurozone economy grew by 0.7% in the first  quarter compared to the three months prior, revised down from a previous  forecast [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>By Jason Simpkins<br />
  <strong>Associate  Editor</strong></h3>
<p>First-quarter growth in the 15-nation Eurozone was weaker  than first reported, yet another worrying development for a region already  struggling with soaring inflation.</p>
<p>The combined Eurozone economy grew by 0.7% in the first  quarter compared to the three months prior, revised down from a previous  forecast of 0.8%, <a target="_blank" href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1090,30070682,1090_33076576&#038;_dad=portal&#038;_schema=PORTAL">Eurostat</a> reported. While the figure is still relatively strong, a U.S. slowdown, rampant  inflation, and low consumer demand could drag the economy down even further in  the second half of the year. </p>
<p>The European Commission&#8217;s gauge of consumer confidence  declined to a level of -17 in June from -15 in May. Economic sentiment declined  to 94.9 from 97.6 in May. Much of the decline was attributed to a steep rise in  Eurozone inflation, which hit a 16-year high of 4% in June.</p>
<p>&#8220;<a target="_blank" href="http://www.reutersfxhub.com/fxhub/forex-news-detail.jsf?newsId=23786&#038;pageId=0&#038;title=DATAWATCH%20Euro%20zone%20consumer%20confidence%20fading,%20French%20spending%20rise%20just%20a%20blip">The  surge in food and energy prices is clearly squeezing the life out of the  consumer side of the economy,</a>&#8221; said Ken Wattret of BNP Paribas SA (OTC ADR: <a target="_blank" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3ABNPQY">BNPQY</a>) told <strong><em>Thomson  Financial</em></strong>. </p>
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<p>The European Central Bank (ECB) voted to raise its main  interest rate last week to 4.25% in an attempt to subdue inflationary  pressures, but ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet isn&#8217;t convinced the  quarter-point hike will be enough. </p>
<p>&#8220;Risks to price  stability over the medium term remain clearly on the upside&#8230; and have  intensified in recent months,&#8221;                                                                                                                 <a target="_blank" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7640025">he told legislators  in Strasbourg, France</a>.</p>
<p>&#8220;The Governing  Council is strongly concerned that price and wage-setting behaviour could add to  inflationary pressures through broadly-based second-round effects. First signs  are already emerging in some regions of the euro area,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>However, any further action could severely jeopardize an  economy that is clearly starting to limp, particularly as the U.S. rate remains  as low as 2%. The euro&#8217;s continued strengthening against the dollar has  adversely affected European exports and could further endanger the Eurozone&#8217;s  two biggest economies, France and Germany, which each suffered in May with exports  plummeting 1.7% and 3.2% respectively.</p>
<p>&#8220;I have the right as president of the French republic  to wonder if it is reasonable to raise the European rates to 4.25 percent while  the Americans have rates of 2.0 percent,&#8221; French President Nicolas Sarkozy  said in Paris on Saturday.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Spain is on the brink of a possible recession, as  a housing slump similar to that being experienced in the United States and  Britain has racked the country. Spain&#8217;s gross domestic product (GDP) has grown  at an average annual rate of 3.75% for the last decade but the collapse of a  housing bubble has left the economy in disarray. </p>
<p>In 2006, more than 700,000 houses were built in Spain,<br />
<strong><em>The Wall Street Journal</em></strong> reported, more than France, Germany, and the  United Kingdom combined. And investment in housing accounted for 10% of the  country&#8217;s GDP, more than twice the Eurozone average.</p>
<p>However, a large accumulation of debt and tighter credit  conditions caused the housing boom to grind to a halt. Now, analysts anticipate  fewer than 300,000 homes will be built in Spain this year. </p>
<p>Spanish retail sales fell 5.3% in May, <strong><em>The Journal</em></strong> reported, and unemployment shot up to 9.9%. GDP growth in the country slumped  to 0.3% in the first quarter, down from 0.8%.</p>
<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s a high likelihood the [Spanish] economy could  be in recession at the end of the year,&#8221; Fernando Eguidazu, vice chairman  of the Circulo de Empresarios business association told journalists Monday.</p>
<p>Stagnation or contraction in the Spanish economy could shave  as much as 0.1% off the region&#8217;s quarterly growth rate, according to Holger  Schmieding, Bank of America Corp.&#8217;s (<a target="_blank" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=BAC&#038;hl=en">BAC</a>) chief  European economist. Schmieding expects Eurozone growth will drop to 0.2% in the  third and fourth quarter. </p>
<p><strong><u>News and Related Story  Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Reuters:</strong><br />
  <a target="_blank" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7639669">Euro zone  Q1 GDP growth revised down to 0.7 pct</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Thomson Financial:</strong><br />
  <a target="_blank" href="http://www.reutersfxhub.com/fxhub/forex-news-detail.jsf?newsId=23786&#038;pageId=0&#038;title=DATAWATCH%20Euro%20zone%20consumer%20confidence%20fading,%20French%20spending%20rise%20just%20a%20blip">DATAWATCH  Euro zone consumer confidence fading, French spending rise just a blip</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Reuters:</strong><br />
  <a target="_blank" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7640025">ECB still worried  by inflation despite rate rise</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Wall       Street Journal:</strong><br />
  <a target="_blank" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121547707526434303.html?mod=googlenews_wsj">Spain  Faces Recession, Threatening Euro Zone</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning:</strong><br />
  <a target="_blank" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/06/27/e.u.-stocks-slide-as-ecb-gears-up-to-fight-inflation-with-higher-rates/" title="Permanent Link to E.U. Stocks Slide as ECB Gears Up to Fight Inflation with Higher Rates">E.U.  Stocks Slide as ECB Gears Up to Fight Inflation with Higher Rates</a></li>
</ul>
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