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	<title>Investment News: Money Morning &#187; Ethanol</title>
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		<title>Two Ways to Profit in Spite of the Ethanol Snafu</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/08/two-ways-to-profit-in-spite-of-the-ethanol-snafu/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/08/two-ways-to-profit-in-spite-of-the-ethanol-snafu/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:18:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ethanol]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Main Essay]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/08/two-ways-to-profit-in-spite-of-the-ethanol-snafu/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald
  Investment Director
  Money Morning/The Money Map Report 
Many car buffs look to  Europe or Japan to see what the future holds, particularly when it comes to the  latest in alternative fuels.
The reason is simple: Gasoline costs more than $7 a gallon in both  those places. 
Of course, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith Fitz-Gerald<br />
  Investment Director</strong><br />
  <strong>Money Morning/The Money Map Report</strong> </p>
<p>Many <a href="http://www.barrett-jackson.com/">car buffs</a> look to  Europe or Japan to see what the future holds, particularly when it comes to the  latest in alternative fuels.</p>
<p>The reason is simple: Gasoline costs more than $7 a gallon in both  those places. </p>
<p>Of course, in Japan &#8211; where I spend part of each year at our home in  Kyoto &#8211; I always enjoy the added bonus of three to five hardworking  service-station employees who swarm my car like they&#8217;re part of an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_One">F1 pit crew</a>, but that&#8217;s  merely a nicety that helps me feel better about the money I&#8217;m literally pouring  into my gasoline tank.</p>
<p>In Europe, I don&#8217;t get the pit crew, but I do get diesel. And thanks to  tax breaks in many of the countries there, diesel can be cheaper than gasoline.  No wonder, then, that more than 50% of the vehicles sold in the European market  are diesel powered.</p>
<p>Could we see a similar shift here in the United States market? </p>
<p>Perhaps. But there will first have to be some mighty big changes. And,  ironically, they&#8217;re many of the same changes that have to take place to clear  the way for such other alternative-fuel technologies as ethanol or hydrogen to  be fully commercialized. In the face of a trillion-dollar &quot;pork fest&quot; &#8211;  courtesy of the U.S. government &#8211; this really chafes my hide as both a  taxpayer, and as a consumer.</p>
<h3>Diesel and the Democratic Socialist Republic of Oregon</h3>
<p>For instance, only 45% of the nation&#8217;s service stations have diesel  fuel available for sale, and most of them &#8211; not surprisingly &#8211; are concentrated  along our freeways and highways, leaving suburbanite commuters and  behind-the-wheel city dwellers in a lurch. This means that I can own any diesel  vehicle I want, but am effectively limited as to where I can drive it.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s the same with ethanol.</p>
<p>Then there&#8217;s the cost. Right now, diesel is selling for only 20 cents  less than a gallon of gasoline. In years past, diesel was actually a great deal  cheaper than gasoline. Now, however, diesel is likely to get far more expensive  as demand for this close cousin to gasoline escalates even more.</p>
<p>Part of that heightened demand will come from newer diesel vehicles.  But, ironically, much of the demand increase will come from government  legislation related to ethanol production that requires output to increase from  4.7 billion gallons a year in 2007 to 7.5 billion gallons a year by 2012.  Here&#8217;s why: The bulk of the machinery used for ethanol production &#8211; as well as  the machinery used to harvest the corn used to make ethanol &#8211; is  diesel-powered.</p>
<p>Talk about a paradox.</p>
<p>Still, with the fuel consumption of European vehicles averaging 36  miles per gallon, versus only 22 miles per gallon here in the U.S. market, this  might be a moot point, since many of the world&#8217;s top &quot;clean diesel&quot; cars &#8211; such  as the 74 mpg Volkswagen AG Polo &#8211; aren&#8217;t even available here. Nor will they be  anytime, soon.</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s a literal &quot;crying shame,&quot; considering that many of them can  be much more environmentally friendly than the current crop of &quot;hybrids&quot; that  are all the rage among U.S. consumers.</p>
<p>But where it really gets frustrating for me &#8211; especially as I stand at  the gas pumps here in what I like to call the &quot;Democratic Socialist Republic of  Oregon,&quot; where my family and I live when we&#8217;re not in Kyoto &#8211; is that,  according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, if just 33% of U.S.  drivers switched to diesel vehicles, this country could cut oil imports by more  than 10%. What&#8217;s more, consumption would plummet by a staggering 1.5 million  barrels of crude per day.</p>
<p>That should make you sit up and take notice.</p>
<h3>How to Play the Alternative Fuel Trend</h3>
<p>One interesting long-term play that the <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> staff has uncovered of late is agri-biotech giant Monsanto Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mon&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">MON</a>),  which just last week released a quarterly sales-and-profit report that eclipsed  anything Wall Street had anticipated [<strong>To read <em>Money Morning</em>'s recent  analysis of Monsanto's business prospects and financial position, <u><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/07/monsanto-reaps-huge-rewards-from-its-blossoming-seed-business/">please  click here</a></u>. The report is free of charge</strong>].</p>
<p>Once largely a moribund chemical  company, Monsanto in recent years has moved heavily into the  agricultural-biotech field with its genetically engineered seeds and its  &quot;Roundup&quot; branded herbicide. Monsanto is already seeing a benefit from the  growing demand for food and other agricultural commodities as Third World  economies continue to emerge. And investors can expect that to continue.</p>
<p>But Monsanto is also benefiting  from the move to alternative fuels, such as ethanol. And if you think about  that, it makes perfect sense. Genetically engineered seeds improve crop yields.  And since ethanol is produced using either corn or sugar, soaring worldwide  energy demand will pressure producers of alternative fuels to be as efficient  as possible.&nbsp; That need for boosted crop  yields will further stoke demand for Monsanto&#8217;s seed products, as well as its  herbicide.</p>
<p>If funds are more you style,  consider some of the better-quality exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on  &quot;clean&quot; energy technologies &#8211; which include alternative fuels. One of  the top names is PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=pbw">PBW</a>).</p>
<p>These are some of the better  profit opportunities that exist now. Let&#8217;s hope our leaders wise up; if they  do, additional profit opportunities will emerge.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and Related Story Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning: </strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/11/16/ethanols-a-farce-and-were-our-own-worst-enemy-when-it-comes-to-energy-alternatives/">Ethanol&#8217;s  a Farce and We&#8217;re Our Own Worst Enemy When It Comes To Energy Alternatives</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Wikipedia</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_One">Formula 1</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Web       site</strong>: <a href="http://www.barrett-jackson.com/"><br />
  Barrett-Jackson Auto Auctions</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning Investment Research Report</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008-alternative-energy-companies-will-power-green-profits-in-the-new-year/">Outlook  2008: Alternative  Energy Companies Will Power &quot;Green&quot; Profits in the New Year</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning Investment Report</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/07/monsanto-reaps-huge-rewards-from-its-blossoming-seed-business/">Monsanto  Reaps Huge Rewards From Its Blossoming Seed Business</a> </li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Ethanol&#8217;s a Farce and We&#8217;re Our Own Worst Enemy When It Comes To Energy Alternatives</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/11/16/ethanols-a-farce-and-were-our-own-worst-enemy-when-it-comes-to-energy-alternatives/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/11/16/ethanols-a-farce-and-were-our-own-worst-enemy-when-it-comes-to-energy-alternatives/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Nov 2007 23:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Energy Alternatives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Main Essay]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/11/16/ethanols-a-farce-and-were-our-own-worst-enemy-when-it-comes-to-energy-alternatives/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald
  Contributing  Editor 
For months we&#8217;ve  heard nothing but great things about ethanol.
And true to  form, the experts here at Money Morning have ignored most of the  resultant investor buzz.
The truth is  that ethanol&#8217;s a farce and we&#8217;re our own worst enemy when it comes to refining [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith Fitz-Gerald<br />
  Contributing  Editor </strong></p>
<p>For months we&#8217;ve  heard nothing but great things about ethanol.</p>
<p>And true to  form, the experts here at <strong>Money Morning</strong> have ignored most of the  resultant investor buzz.</p>
<p>The truth is  that ethanol&#8217;s a farce and we&#8217;re our own worst enemy when it comes to refining  the technology anyway &#8211; literally.</p>
<p>For one thing,  ethanol &#8211; in its current state &#8211; is anything but the road to energy independence.  Sure it can help out, but even if we were to convert 100% of available corn  crops to ethanol production, our gasoline dependence would drop a mere 12%. </p>
<p>In order to get  some serious leverage, and truly displace gasoline in this country, we&#8217;d need  120% of all available cropland &#8211; meaning we&#8217;d give up planting anything else.  No beans, no fruits, no potatoes &#8230; you get the idea.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s another  fact most folks riding the ethanol bandwagon seem not to know: Because the U.S.  government required oil refineries to use more than 4 billion gallons of  ethanol last year &#8211; regardless of how much it actually cost &#8211; wholesale prices  were more than double the cost of conventional gasoline. And that doesn&#8217;t even  include the costs of delivering the ethanol, which boosted its &quot;real&quot; price  even more.</p>
<p>That leads us to  gasoline prices at the pump, which include federally mandated&nbsp; subsidy taxes in designated &quot;clean air&quot; areas  that boost the price by 60 cents or more per gallon.</p>
<p>As a taxpayer  and free-market advocate, I&#8217;m hopping mad, because what&#8217;s really at stake here  is the trillion-dollar &quot;porkfest&quot; laid out by the Beltway Boys [in my view,  they deserve to referred to as &quot;The Beltway Bandits&quot;]. It&#8217;s just one more  example of badly squandered capital &#8211; money that could have done some real good  if spent correctly, but is instead wasted to support yet another technology  with dubious prospects.</p>
<p>In all fairness  to ethanol proponents, marked improvements in the refining process that are not  yet commercially marketable could conceivably transform ethanol into a  profitable product. Were that to happen, U.S. consumers and commercial  interests would obviously use more of the new fuel.</p>
<p>But that brings  us to the second problem. And that problem is&#8230;well&#8230;us.</p>
<p>As it turns out,  most people in the U.S. Corn Belt love the idea of growing more corn, but  they&#8217;d rather not have an ethanol distillery in their own back yard.</p>
<p>Unfortunately,  in the world of alternative energy, that &quot;I support it, so long as you put it  somewhere else&quot; is a common sentiment across much of the U.S. market right now.  It doesn&#8217;t matter what form of alternative energy you&#8217;re talking about &#8211; either <a href="http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/615/">solar farms</a>, with <a href="http://www.answers.com/topic/solar-energy">angled solar panels</a> arranged like crops in furrow-like rows, or sprawling <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power">wind farms</a>, each with a  battalion of windmill towers, their propellers spinning at a hypnotic pace &#8211;  communities want them built elsewhere. </p>
<p>People are  resisting wind farms in the gorges here in Oregon. Along the coasts, citizens  are resisting liquid-natural-gas (LNG) facilities. Many can&#8217;t agree on  independent power production sites. And they sure can&#8217;t get it together for the  biggest boy on the block, nuclear power.</p>
<p>Seems we&#8217;re our  own worst enemy.</p>
<p>Guess we better  bank on doing business with the OPEC folks (Organization of Petroleum Exporting  Countries) awhile longer and continue pouring our hard-earned tax dollars down  the garbage disposal so that Congress can continue to finance its  trillion-dollar pork-fests.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a shame.  This doesn&#8217;t happen in other countries, which have sound energy policies. It&#8217;s  yet one more reason why the U.S. economy will continue to fall even further  behind the rest of the world, since low-cost power and energy are one of the  best economic-development tools around.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s hope that  we wise up, before we fall too far off the pace.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and  Related Story Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>M<strong>oney Morning News</strong></strong>: <br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/09/ldk-shares-plunge-another-26-due-to-worries-barrons-report/">LDK       Shares Plunge Another 26% Due to Worries, Barron&#8217;s Report<strong>.</strong></a> </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money Morning: </strong><br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/03/fluor-to-build-polysilicon-plant-in-china/">Fluor       to Build Polysilicon Plant in China. </a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money Morning       Investment Analysis: </strong><br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/01/how-to-profit-as-surge-of-solar-ipos-mark-dawn-of-new-industry-in-china/">How       to Profit as Surge of Solar IPOs Mark Dawn of New Industry in China.</a> </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money Morning News:</strong><br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/01/ipos-soar-in-third-quarter-fueled-by-solar-software-and-finance-deals/">IPOs       Soar in Third Quarter, Fueled by Solar, Software and Finance Deals.</a> </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money Morning News: </strong><br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/02/china-solar-cell-maker-ja-solar-to-sell-280-million-worth-of-additional-shares/">China       Solar Cell Maker JA Solar to Sell $280 Million Worth of Additional Shares.</a> </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money Morning News       Analysis: </strong><br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/04/savaged-garmin-battles-back-with-cell-phone-navigation-software/">When       Corruption is Low, Your Profits are High.</a> </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Answers.com</strong>: <a href="http://www.answers.com/topic/solar-energy"><br />
  Solar Energy</a>.</p>
</li>
<li><strong>Wikipedia</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power">Wind Power</a>.</li>
</ul>
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