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	<title>Investment News: Money Morning &#187; Bin Laden</title>
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		<title>Societe Generale&#8217;s $7.14 Billion Blow Out Won&#8217;t Be the Last</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/29/societe-generales-714-billion-blow-out-wont-be-the-last/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/29/societe-generales-714-billion-blow-out-wont-be-the-last/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2008 23:46:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bin Laden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Main Essay]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[    By Keith Fitz-Gerald
    Investment Director
    Money Morning/The Money Map Report
  It wasn&#8217;t quite the  Bin Laden trade we wrote about months ago, but at $7.14 billion, it was  noteworthy.
We&#8217;re referring,  of course, to the trades taken by 31-year old trader Jerome [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>    <strong>By Keith Fitz-Gerald</strong><br />
    <strong>Investment Director</strong><br />
    <strong>Money Morning/The Money Map Report</strong></p>
<p>  It wasn&#8217;t quite <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/29/this-900-million-bet-has-global-traders-talking%e2%80%a6/">the  Bin Laden trade</a> we wrote about months ago, but at $7.14 billion, it was  noteworthy.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re referring,  of course, to the trades taken by 31-year old trader <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Kerviel">Jerome Kerviel</a>, former  employee of Societe Generale SA (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3ASCGLY">SCGLY</a>). In recent  months, he made nearly $73.5 billion in trades on bets he placed on European  markets &#8211; including contracts on the Dax, Eurostoxx and FTSE indices. </p>
<p>The sad thing is  that according to several anonymous sources, Kerviel, who assembled the massive  trades while betting on declines in the markets during 2007, was making the  right bets. In fact, one source suggested that he only took on fictitious losing  positions to cover up the winners he&#8217;d built up. And those losing positions are  what ultimately caused the $7.14 billion hit to SocGen&#8217;s balance sheet.</p>
<p>Publicly,  Societe Generale doesn&#8217;t agree. </p>
<p>Chief Executive  Officer Daniel Bouton stated that Kerviel set up a fictitious company, which  fronted losing futures trades. Bouton also indicated that Kerviel hacked  company computers and control procedures to elude detection.&nbsp; SocGen management is going above and beyond to  make the results of the ongoing investigation public.&nbsp; More details will likely come out for days to  come.</p>
<p>In a bizarre  twist, those close to the investigation, speaking anonymously, say that it  doesn&#8217;t even appear Kerviel had or would have profited from his gains &ndash;  something Bouton confirmed in statements last week.&nbsp; It seems Kerviel&#8217;s motivation was fame, not  money: He wanted to be a star trader and run with the big dogs, when he should  have just stayed on the porch.</p>
<p>If all of this  is correct, it stands in stark contrast to the $1.4 billion trade in 1995 that  all but wiped Barings Bank from the face of the earth. Singapore-based trader, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Leeson">Nick Leeson</a>, was badly  upside down and losing money for his employer, while pocketing an estimated $35  million in his own personal accounts. Using loopholes so wide you could drive a  truck through them, Leeson managed to run up massive trading losses that  equaled Barings entire assets, forcing the long-standing bank into bankruptcy.  [Incidentally, Barings, which literally funded the Napoleonic Wars, was  subsequently sold to Dutch giant ING Greop N.V. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AING">ING</a>), for a single  British pound, just $1.98 at today's exchange rates.]</p>
<p>It also runs  contrary to a similar trading scandal in Japan in the late 1980s when trader <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasuo_Hamanaka">Yasuo Hamanako</a>, known as  &quot;Mr. Five Percent&quot; because he was believed to control five percent of the  global copper markets, blew through $2.6 billion of Sumitomo&#8217;s assets while  trying to corner the copper markets.</p>
<p>Or the $4  billion in losses at Long Term Capital Management which cratered spectacularly  when Russia defaulted on government bonds in 1998 and forced interest rate differentials  between risk free assets and other government paper to increase sharply.</p>
<p>Then, there was  the $6.6 billion Amaranth debacle. Energy trader <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Hunter_%28trader%29">Brian Hunter</a> got upside down on natural gas positions that triggered massive losses when the  company had to cover them.</p>
<p>For now, Societe  Generale has a large enough balance sheet to take the hit, but it&#8217;s had to seek  an $8 billion capital infusion in the process. Like Barings before it, the  French bank is now vulnerable to takeovers, but as Bouton acknowledged, &quot;It  wouldn&#8217;t be the first time.&quot;</p>
<p>Nor the last&#8230; at  least not when it comes to the litany of spectacular financial blowouts. </p>
<p>Despite the fact  that the world is now clamoring for more oversight and controls, we suggest  that no amount of regulation will help. Clever traders will always find ways to  game the system and their supervisors will unwittingly encourage this behavior  by maintaining the outrageous bonus structures and payouts for which Wall  Street is now synonymous. </p>
<p>The old adage,  &quot;where there&#8217;s a will, there&#8217;s a way&quot; is unbelievably true when it comes to the  financial markets. </p>
<p>We think  regulation is a moot point: The markets will eventually sort this out on their  own, with the winners and losers ultimately self-selecting in a form of  financial Darwinism.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and Related Story Links: </u></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Money  Morning:</strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/29/this-900-million-bet-has-global-traders-talking%e2%80%a6/">This  $900 Million Bet Has Global Traders Talking</a><strong></strong></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>Money  Morning:</strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/09/21/the-%e2%80%98900-million-conspiracy%e2%80%99-trade-that-wasn%e2%80%99t/">The  &#8216;$900 Million Conspiracy&#8217; Trade That Wasn&#8217;t?</a></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>Money  Morning:</strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/25/rogue-trader-costs-societe-generale-72-billion/">Rogue  Trader Costs Societe Generale $7.2 Billion</a></li>
</ul>
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