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	<title>Investment News: Money Morning &#187; Beijing</title>
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		<title>How to Maneuver Around Beijing&#8217;s Market Machinations to Profit in China&#8217;s Volatile Stock Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/11/15/how-to-maneuver-around-beijings-market-machinations-to-profit-in-chinas-volatile-stock-markets/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Nov 2007 22:57:22 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Beijing]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/11/15/how-to-maneuver-around-beijings-market-machinations-to-profit-in-chinas-volatile-stock-markets/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald
  Contributing Editor
Unlike the  United States Federal Reserve, which seems to be content  with a dollar policy of benign neglect, the Chinese central bank actually  has real power and isn&#8217;t afraid to use it to protect and nurture the country&#8217;s  economic health.
Most recently,  China&#8217;s central bank &#8211; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>By Keith Fitz-Gerald</b><br />
  <b>Contributing Editor</b></p>
<p>Unlike the  United States Federal Reserve, which seems to be <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/29/send-in-the-clowns-bush-administration-pursues-economic-policy-of-benign-neglect/">content  with a dollar policy of benign neglect</a>, the Chinese central bank actually  has real power and isn&#8217;t afraid to use it to protect and nurture the country&#8217;s  economic health.</p>
<p>Most recently,  China&#8217;s central bank &#8211; The People&#8217;s Bank of China &#8211; boosted the key reserve  requirement for the nation&#8217;s commercial banks by half a percentage point to  13.5%. The central bank also raised deposit rates and key savings figures.</p>
<p>I realize that  this may not strike readers as interesting at a time when the U.S. stock  markets are struggling, but it provides an important confirmation of two  things:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>First, it shows us just how strong       China&#8217;s economy really is.</li>
<li>And, second, it demonstrates exactly       what the Chinese government is thinking when it comes to the next great       step in that nation&#8217;s financial growth.</li>
</ul>
<p>Let&#8217;s talk about  the Chinese economy first.</p>
<p>Many investors  are concerned that the bubble has burst, that all the profit opportunities are  gone, and that somehow China is headed for a meltdown. Indeed, the real  conspiracy theorists believe China has temporarily propped up the stock market  in such a way that once the curtain comes down on the summer Olympics in  Beijing next year, it&#8217;ll be &quot;curtains&quot; for Chinese shares, as stocks prices  there implode.</p>
<p>They couldn&#8217;t be  more wrong.</p>
<p>The interest  rate hike is the ninth such increase this year alone. It&#8217;s an important step, a  move intended to restrict the money flowing into the Chinese economy to curb  what the People&#8217;s Bank of China refers to as &quot;excessive credit growth.&quot;</p>
<p>Strip away the  bureaucratic-speak that&#8217;s a common manifestation of central bankers the world  over and what you&#8217;re left with is this: <u>What China&#8217;s central bank is  actually saying is that the nation&#8217;s economy is on fire</u>.</p>
<p>According to the  latest figures, in fact, China&#8217;s economy is surging at an annual rate of 11.9%,  putting the country on track for a fifth-straight year of double-digit growth.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s  impressive enough, but consider that this five-year surge follows 25 years of  growth that averaged nearly 10% annually. The U.S., by comparison, advances at  a 3% to 4% clip in a good year, and the average is probably half that, so we&#8217;re  talking about growth rates in China that are four, five or even six times  higher than our own.</p>
<p>If you consider  that China is still primarily a cash-driven economy, and you compare what&#8217;s  happening there to better-developed regional economies like Japan and Taiwan,  the &quot;official&quot; growth rates are probably low &#8230; way low. In fact, it&#8217;s not crazy  to believe that China&#8217;s real economy &#8211; the cash-based one that can&#8217;t be  accurately measured on an official basis &#8211; is growing 15%-20% a year.</p>
<p>By increasing  the reserve requirement, China&#8217;s central bank wants to encourage commercial  banks to hold onto a greater percentage of their deposits, rather than  recycling them as loans into the broader economy. Theoretically, this will curb  the flood of capital that&#8217;s driving growth as everyone from normal China  citizens to Western capitalists tries to profit from the &quot;China Growth  Miracle.&quot;</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll tell you  right now that this rate increase by the central bank &#8211; like the increases that  preceded it &#8211; will fail miserably.</p>
<p>Lending volumes  have nearly doubled this year already and money-supply growth is actually  accelerating. What&#8217;s more, the yuan is arguably undervalued by as much as 40%,  and China&#8217;s stock markets are on a tear &#8211; even if you factor in the recent  pullback.</p>
<p>And that brings  me to what&#8217;s next in the Chinese financial markets.</p>
<p>With the way  China&#8217;s markets have whipsawed investors in recent days, many people assume  that the party&#8217;s over. [For an illustration, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance/historical?q=NYSE:FXI">click here</a> to track a month's worth of closing prices on the closely watched iShares  FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=fxi&#038;hl=en">FXI</a>)  exchange-traded fund (ETF)].</p>
<p>Walking away now  would be a mistake.</p>
<p>Indeed, when it  comes to China, we&#8217;re still in the opening frames of what you can expect will  be an exciting extra-inning ballgame. There will be many more volatile  stretches like the current one. But each time &#8211; the present included &#8211; Chinese  stocks will shrug off the fears and resume their march toward higher ground.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s why:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>First, as we noted earlier, the       economy is on fire. Hundreds of millions of people are trading stocks.       It&#8217;s inevitable that most middle-class China consumers will want a piece       of prosperity, meaning there&#8217;s still big blocks of cash that hasn&#8217;t yet       entered the stock market.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Second, you could argue the recent       stock-price declines are, not surprisingly, being orchestrated by Beijing,       although the country&#8217;s leaders would never admit it. Without boring you       with the details, China&#8217;s getting ready to launch a stock-index futures       market, so it&#8217;s entirely conceivable the government is making a concerted       effort to knock share prices back to more-reasonable valuation levels <u>before       an even-bigger flood of capital hits the markets and pushes share prices       far higher</u>. Interest-rate increases are part of that effort to       suppress stock prices. So are the instructions the central bank has issued       to state-run pension funds, in which the fund managers are ordered to cut       back on their holdings of China shares. That&#8217;s yet another source of       potential downward pressure on stock prices.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li>And third, this will result in an       evening-out process that we here at <b>Money Morning</b> identified months       ago when we suggested that investors avoid the China-based highfliers in       favor of seemingly staid-and-boring companies that are actually superbly       positioned to benefit &quot;because of&quot; the growth in China.</li>
</ul>
<p>Case-in-point,  consider some of China&#8217;s banks and insurance companies, which have been largely  ignored in favor of sexier technology and industrial firms. These denizens of  China&#8217;s financial-services sector have actually stabilized and even risen in  value on several of the bigger down days recently. Part of that is associated  with a record yuan parity rate of 7.4162 to the U.S. dollar.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s unlikely  to change in the near future and the sector should see above-average returns in  the next 12 to 24 months. </p>
<p>But investors  will have to move with caution to make certain they don&#8217;t get burned in the  interim. Beijing is notoriously secretive when it comes to many things, and  protecting the yuan &#8211; as well as the future viability of the stock market &#8211; by  pushing down near-term stock prices certainly qualifies.</p>
<p><b>News and Related Story Links:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Money Morning Investing Research Report:</strong> <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/01/profit-from-chinas-nuclear-option/">Profit  from China&#8217;s &#8216;Nuclear Option.&#8217;</a>
</li>
<li><strong>    Economic  Analysis:</strong> <br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/29/send-in-the-clowns-bush-administration-pursues-economic-policy-of-benign-neglect/">Send in the Clowns: Bush Administration Pursues  Economic Policy of Benign Neglect</a>.    </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money  Morning Investment Report</strong>: <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/02/jim-rogers-warns-of-fallout-from-fed-cuts-says-to-seek-profits-in-commodities-asian-currencies/"><br />
    Jim  Rogers Warns of Fallout From Fed Cuts; Says to Seek Profits in Commodities,  Asian Currencies</a>. </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money  Morning Investment Report</strong>: <br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/11/eleven-ways-to-profit-from-the-falling-us-dollar/">Eleven  Ways to Profit From the Falling U.S. Dollar</a>. 
  </li>
<li><strong>Money  Morning Investment Analysis:</strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/03/go-global-for-profits/"><br />
    Avoid the &#8216;Resurgent&#8217; Homebuilding Sector and Go Global for Profits</a>. </p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money  Morning Investment Analysis</strong>: <br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/07/27/uncertainmarkets/">Defensive  Investing is One Key to Profits in Uncertain Markets</a>.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>China&#8217;s Weeklong Shopping Holiday Breaks (Yet Another) Retail Sales Record</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/09/chinas-weeklong-shopping-holiday-breaks-yet-another-retail-sales-record/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/10/09/chinas-weeklong-shopping-holiday-breaks-yet-another-retail-sales-record/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2007 11:14:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Beijing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese National Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing In China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shanghai]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Top News]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[From Staff Reports
Retail sales during China&#8217;s weeklong National Day holiday surged almost 350 billion yuan (about $46.7 billion), a 16% increase in consumer spending compared to last year&#8217;s week of celebration, its Ministry of Commerce reported on Sunday. 
During the week, Beijing hosted 5.94 million visitors, up 3.5% from last year. In the modern, almost-western [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>From Staff Reports</strong></p>
<p>Retail sales during China&#8217;s weeklong National Day holiday surged almost 350 billion yuan (about $46.7 billion), a 16% increase in consumer spending compared to last year&#8217;s week of celebration, its Ministry of Commerce reported on Sunday. </p>
<p>During the week, Beijing hosted 5.94 million visitors, up 3.5% from last year. In the modern, almost-western East Coast city of Shanghai, the 4.62 million visitors spent more than 3.3 billion yuan (about $439 million), up 15.2% from last year&#8217;s totals. </p>
<p>The holiday is one of three Golden Week holidays the government implemented in 1999 &#8211; ostensibly to boost consumer spending. The other two are the Spring Festival holiday and the May 1 Labor Day holiday. </p>
<p>Last year, retail sales during National Day rose 14.5% over the totals of 2005. </p>
<p>Retail sales growth is an indication of China&#8217;s expanding middle class, the crux of China&#8217;s emergence as a global economic powerhouse. As China&#8217;s consumers become wealthier, their spending fattens the bottom lines of retailers, cell phone providers, Internet providers, car manufactures and even homebuilders.</p>
<p>And, as more Chinese companies are born and expand, even working-class retail investors can ride the wave through ADRs and index investing, and actually start to build wealth for themselves and their families.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><u>News and Related Story Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>China View</strong><br />
    <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-10/07/content_6844251.htm">Retail sales of consumer goods hit 350 bln yuan in weeklong holidays </a></p>
</li>
<li> <strong>China&#8217;s Ministry of Commerce</strong><br />
    <a href="http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/newsrelease/commonnews/200710/20071005153072.html">China Tourism Reaps Golden Harvest Through Weeklong Holiday </a></p>
</li>
<li><strong> Money Morning</strong><br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/09/18/shares-of-baidu-chinas-google-surge/">Shares of Baidu &#8211; &quot;China&#8217;s Google&quot; &#8211; Surge</a></p>
</li>
<li><strong>Money Morning</strong><br />
    <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/09/10/china_communication/">China Communication Construction Taunts Barred U.S. Investors With 136% First-Half Profits, 130% YTD Stock Gains</a>
  </li>
</ul>
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