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	<title>Investment News: Money Morning &#187; Bear Market</title>
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		<title>Four Ways to Profit as You Keep the Bear at Bay</title>
		<link>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/23/four-ways-to-profit-as-you-keep-the-bear-at-bay/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/23/four-ways-to-profit-as-you-keep-the-bear-at-bay/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Jan 2008 00:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bear Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Main Essay]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/23/four-ways-to-profit-as-you-keep-the-bear-at-bay/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald
  Investment Director
   Money Morning/The Money Map Report  
We didn&#8217;t get  the 500-point drop in the Dow  Jones Industrial Average that we appeared headed for yesterday, but that  doesn&#8217;t mean we&#8217;re out of the woods.
The U.S. Federal  Reserve is of the opinion that an emergency-rate [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith Fitz-Gerald</strong><br />
  <strong>Investment Director</strong><br />
  <strong> Money Morning/The Money Map Report  </strong></p>
<p>We didn&#8217;t get  the 500-point drop in the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582">Dow  Jones Industrial Average</a> that we appeared headed for yesterday, but that  doesn&#8217;t mean we&#8217;re out of the woods.</p>
<p>The U.S. Federal  Reserve is of the opinion that an emergency-rate cut of three quarters of a  percentage point will help slow or even stop the gut-wrenching drop we&#8217;ve seen  in recent days.</p>
<p>Many  professional investors &#8211; myself included &#8211; aren&#8217;t so sure that&#8217;s true. That  uncertainty among the pros is why the markets remained volatile for the rest of  the day yesterday. It&#8217;s also why we think the rebound from the early morning  lows smacks of a &quot;<a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/00/101700.asp">dead-cat  bounce</a>&quot; &#8211; the kind of temporary rally that can sucker investors back into  the fray before it picks them clean when the downward trend resumes.</p>
<p>Given that it was  cheap money that started this whole speculative frenzy that we&#8217;re now paying  the price for, we happen to think that the Fed is making a mistake by creating  even cheaper capital here. It&#8217;s tantamount to providing crack for a crack  addict: Sooner or later we&#8217;re going to have to pay for this, but that&#8217;s a story  for another time.</p>
<p>More  immediately, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/22/world-indices-nosedive-us-markets-could-follow/">the  markets have suffered</a> back-to-back triple-digit drops in recent weeks, and  stocks have been falling for months. Barring some surprisingly solid earnings  reports and some highly upbeat economic data, share prices could continue to  fall &#8211; if for no other reason than it can take months for an interest-rate cut  to work its way through the economic system.</p>
<p>I know that  sounds bad. But it&#8217;s actually a good thing, and is why we urge readers with  strong stomachs to take advantage of the market&#8217;s misbehavior and add to  critical positions right now.</p>
<h3>Four Rules to Live By</h3>
<p>Here are four  rules to help guide your investing decisions during these topsy-turvy times.</p>
<p><strong><u>First, zig  when other investors zag</u></strong>.  Studies demonstrate time and again that investors who buy when the markets are  well off their highs &#8211; just as they are now &#8211; tend to achieve dramatically  higher results over time.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s face it:  We were overdue for this correction. Since 2003, stocks have performed well,  but many of the most-promising companies had become greatly overvalued, making  them more of a downside risk than an investment opportunity. </p>
<p><strong><u>Second,  queue up on quality</u></strong>.  With the steep global sell off we&#8217;ve seen, many markets are showing only  slivers of strength. Some observers have labeled this as a &quot;flight to quality.&quot;  We&#8217;re calling it the &quot;buying opportunity of the decade.&quot; Think of it this way:  There&#8217;s a lot of money out there and it&#8217;s going to chase the relatively small  number of quality stocks. That should provide one heck of a liftoff for the  stocks of companies with accelerating sales growth and expanding earnings.</p>
<p><strong><u>Third,  grab the &quot;Global Titans</u></strong>.&quot;  Many of the companies I just described are either located in, or focused on,  overseas markets that remain poised for growth &#8211; even if the U.S. market slows  down. We call those companies &quot;Global Titans,&quot; because they usually derive a  hefty portion of their sales and profits from outside U.S. borders.</p>
<p>The old adage  [and worry] that &quot;when the U.S. economy sneezes, the rest of the world catches  a cold&quot; is becoming increasingly less valid, due to an economic process known  as &quot;decoupling.&quot; This means that &#8211; eventually &#8211; such economies as China and  others will be able to show respectable growth, even if the U.S. economy slows  down or even drops into a recession.</p>
<p>In the immediate  term, even the partial decoupling we&#8217;ve seen means that these other economies  could continue to grow, even if we get mired down by the housing meltdown,  subprime crisis and ensuing credit woes. While those markets may take a  near-term hit because of the maladies of the U.S. economy, their longer-term  growth is much less dependent than ever before on the U.S.-centric model of the  global markets.</p>
<p><strong><u>And  fourth, dial up discounts.</u></strong> The throngs of investors who have already rushed for the exits have jettisoned  all but the kitchen sink from their portfolios in their haste to &quot;get clear.&quot;</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve seen this  so many times before: Investors throw in the towel at precisely the wrong time.  This means that many holdings &#8211; especially closed-end funds related to energy  and income &#8211; are trading at steep discounts to their net asset value.</p>
<p>Putting it in  plain English: They&#8217;re on sale and continue to produce a healthy income that  won&#8217;t be affected by the short-term market swings we&#8217;re watching right now. And  when the markets rebound and head north &#8211; as they will &#8211; those discounts will  narrow, adding to your profits.</p>
<p>Savvy investors  can capitalize on this with choices such as the Nuveen Quality Income Municipal  Fund Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=nqu&#038;hl=en">NQU</a>),  which offers potential double-digit returns with relatively low risk. And the  hefty 5.1% yield doesn&#8217;t hurt, either.</p>
<p>So how else can  investors capitalize on what I&#8217;ve detailed here?</p>
<p>Here are three  moves to make now.</p>
<h3>How to Outfox the  Bear</h3>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong>First, make  certain a good slice of your money is in investments that offer both safety and  balance. We call that category our &quot;Base Builder&quot; investments, and one of our  favorites is the Vanguard Wellington (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=VWELx&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">VWELX</a>).  Since 1929, it&#8217;s captured 80% or more of the market&#8217;s upward moves [including  many of the years where there were market gains of 20% or better], even with a  &quot;safety-first&quot; balanced blend that&#8217;s about 60% stocks and 40% bonds. This asset  mix maintains your ability to gain in bull markets, while minimizing your risk  during more-bearish trading seasons.</p>
<p>Second, include  a hefty dose of income in your portfolio but limit it to the Global Titans or  dividend-harvest strategies.</p>
<p>PowerShares  International Dividend Achievers (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=pid&#038;hl=en">PID</a>) or the Alpine  Dynamic Dividend (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AADVDX">ADVDX</a>)  are logical choices to meet both criteria. Not only is the income they kick off  reinvested over time, but during low-ball market conditions like we&#8217;re  experiencing now, the compounding effect will ensure you are dramatically ahead  of the game when it gets going to upside again because they can appreciate  wildly as the markets recover. Plus, the exposure to international markets  helps diminish the risk associated with a Fed that&#8217;s hell bent for leather on  benign neglect when it comes to our dollar.</p>
<p>And third, throw  in a few inverse funds like the Rydex Inverse S&amp;P 500 Strategy Investments  Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ryurx&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">RYURX</a>),  which appreciates as the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=626307">Standard  &amp; 500 Index</a> drops. Not only can specialized investments such as this  one protect your portfolio from some of the damage inflicted by falling stock  markets, they can add to your upside without forcing you to first dismantle  your portfolio.</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s  really what this game is about. </p>
<p>Make these moves  now. And when the coffee break conversation at the office turns to the stock  market, you&#8217;ll be able to display a relaxed grin, while your co-workers are  reaching for the Pepto-Bismol.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and  Related Story Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Investopedia: </strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/00/101700.asp">The Dead Cat Bounce:  A Bear In Bull&#8217;s Clothing?</a> </li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money Morning Investment Commentary</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/22/four-ways-to-profit-even-if-the-bush-stimulus-plan-is-a-bust/">Four  Ways to Profit Even if the Bush Stimulus Plan is a Bust</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money Morning News</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/22/world-indices-nosedive-us-markets-could-follow/">World  Indices Nosedive; U.S. Markets Could Follow</a></li>
</ul>
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