I read the mention of missed targets and analysts reports.
If you wish to mention missed targets and analyst reports, you only need to listen to the news for the last year.
If you had only listened to Keith’s comments and traded accordingly you would be more than enjoying the rewards it has produced.
This last report was my favourite as I jus this past week weighted heavily in the oil sector.
I’ll just sit back now and enjoy the ride once again.
Thank you

Thanks.

Thanks very much for taking the time to comment. One of the things we really like about Money Morning’s readership is, in fact, how well read and well-informed they are as a group.

As the editor of Money Morning, I’m very familiar with Keith’s market call on oil and wanted to respond to your posting by making a couple of points. First, you are correct that he said that his analytics pointed toward an oil price of $187 — a figure he actually later boosted to $212. But I’d like to take a moment to make a couple of points that I think provide important context.

First, Keith made this projection when oil was trading at about $88 a barrel back in the latter part of 2007, when virtually no one was anticipating the kind of volatility or escalation in energy and commodity prices that subsequently occurred. Oil peaked at $147 a barrel in July. I have to say, knowing the “backstory” as I do, that’s a pretty remarkable call. It’s even more noteworthy because it was made “on the record,” meaning it was made for publication (so many folks claim they “called” an event, but it’s often a claim they make well after the fact).

Second, Keith very clearly stated that his timeline was three to five years — although he qualified it by noting that there could be big spikes in the near term if there were short-term shortages, or some sort of a potential supply interruption (or even the fear of one), or if there were some sort of “event” (such as a terrorist incident, or an accident), that could spark this same sort of fear. He also said that prices would be volatile….that we could see a big upswing…and then just as big a drop — but that ultimately the long-term trend is for much higher oil and energy prices.

Keith’s been quite candid in conceding that prices have fallen more than he expected…but he still believes the long-term trend is for much-steeper oil-and-energy prices.

Third, as I noted, oil prices did make a big move….and it was only after this move was underway that we saw the “mainstream” experts join in and climb on the energy bandwagon.

I also happen to know that Keith’s a LONG-time energy bull….he called for $100-a-barrel oil back when the “black gold” was trading at roughly $30 a barrel. At the time he made that projection, he gave it 10 years….as it turned out, oil reached the $100 a barrel level in a much shorter time frame.

That’s the overall story concerning his call on oil….which he still stands by, I should mention.

As far as the comments he made in the above missive, I think it’s important to remember that this isn’t a market prediction, analysis or even a commentary. This was an essay he crafted after receiving many of the same questions over and over again at his many speaking engagements. And I think it goes to the high level of service he tries to provide his readers. After receiving the same queries over and over again, Keith essentially thought to himself, “These issues are clearly on the minds of a lot of folks…by doing an essay on them I could probably answer the questions a lot of people.” So that’s what he did.

As far as being “behind the curve,” I think it’s important to understand here that these aren’t newfound views….these are things he’s been saying for a long time (I know for a fact that his analysis of looming shortages is a stance he’s literally held for years). But since these views buttressed the points he was making in his article, he thought it well worth mentioning them again. Being someone who’s new to Keith’s work, that’s not something you could have known, so the points you made in your commentary here are perfectly undersandable.

I appreciate your time, here, Carl. Keith does a really great job as investment director here and works very hard to give our readers his very best. I just wanted to make sure he got a fair shake, here. But again, thanks for taking the time to comment. The fact that you were familiar with his earlier forecast, and closely follow the events in the market, underscores that you’re one of those readers, too.

Respectfully;

William Patalon III
Executive Editor

Can you give an answer to this?

If OPEC continues to reduce the output of oil and as the world economies get back on track (which they will) we will be in a deficit position on oil. And the price unfortunately will sky rocket again.

I think you are right on the money with this prediction of oil and commend you for coming forth and sharing your opinion.

How do you see uranium falling in to the mix. It’s taken quite a beating as well, but not too long ago everyone was screaming about China and India needing power plants, and uranium to make them go….what’s your forecast there?