Comments on: If You Want a Forecast for China’s Economy, Ask a Hairy Crab

By: China’s “Chuppies” Point the Way to Growth and Profits

China’s “Chuppies” Point the Way to Growth and Profits — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 19:03:56 +0000

[...] If You Want a Forecast for China’s Economy, Ask a Hairy Crab. [...]

By: Michel de Florenca

Michel de Florenca — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 01:31:29 +0000

I see strong merit in what both Mr Jameson and Turville have mentioned regarding credit card practices in China as i have experienced. There is an underlying pool of wealth within the chinese economy with little social and cultural changes being made from an economic perspective.
there is a definite shift in consumer spending, which is basically focussing more on meeting needs and cutting back on wants. for example: rather than drinking premium imported beer, cheaper local or imported products are being consumed, so we are seeing product or brand substitution – not a drop in consumer spending habits!More importantly, there is a push toward having consumers spend money in China or Hong Kong and restrict their exposure to purchasing goods thats sees the money leave the country. the chinese are very tuned into this and have an uncanny natural understanding of the laws of economics. Yes there are many properties and luxury goods being placed onto the market place at several 100% below 2008’s prices, but if you investigate this a little more closely, you will find that this is largely derived from expatriate and foreign investors in China and Hong Kong rather than the Chinese whom have been converting US$ and assets into cash or gold for the last 18 months and are poising themselves for a massive spending spree within the real estate and other markets.
Never underestimate the underlying intelligence of the savvy chinese people.

By: Graham Turville

Graham Turville — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:11:10 +0000

Credit Card growth will be significant in China but the most important issue is that the credit limits will be much stricter than in the “developed” world. Most Westernised economies lenders still believe that the economic circumstances of an individual never change – i.e. as long as you pay back the minimum sum per month (principal+interest) you are looked upon as a premium client and more than likely will be offered a higher limit as a result. A friend of mine was offered an additional $10K recently but in the interim had lost his job and is struggling!!! In China this will not happen – they are very astute.

As for being negative on China Mr. Jameson – we must all face the facts – things are not good pretty much anywhere – get used to it 2009 is not expected to be any better than 2008!!!!!

By: rob jameson

rob jameson — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 12:02:22 +0000

I live in Shanghai and I have never seen so many young people signing up for credit cards since i’ve lived here – more than 2 years. Therefore i question your articles point about saying banks in china are reducing credit. They are trying to increase domestic spending so increasing credit card sales amongst its urban dwellers is essential.

Perhaps business loans are being restricted to reduce higher risk loans.

Lets not have too much negative reporting on China please. Look at the log in your own eyes before pointing out the spec in another’s eye!