Comments on: The Treasury Department is Choking on Debt, But You Don’t Have To

By: Why Fed Policies and Treasury Department Bailouts Will Lead to Inflation Rather Than Deflation

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 20:18:17 +0000

[...] Money Morning: The Treasury Department is Choking on Debt, But You Don’t Have To [...]

By: Mary Diane Dolan

Mary Diane Dolan — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 20:03:44 +0000

What IS the CPI supposed to be now? I have not seen ANY figure for CPI or for inflation in months! I have not seen a citation of either any gov’t figure or of anyone else’s figure. Bizarre! The US$ rises and rises. This rise would appear not to issue from any rising US interest rates. So some might say that we are in deflation. Perhaps it is felt that there might be a certain CONTRADICTION in advertising that US is both in an overall inflation and an overall deflation simultaneously??? Help. Somebody please answer.

By: The Treasury Department is Choking on Debt, But You Don�t Have To - Xtreme CPU

The Treasury Department is Choking on Debt, But You Don�t Have To - Xtreme CPU — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 19:48:12 +0000

[...] The Treasury Department is Choking on Debt, But You Don�t Have To By Martin Hutchinson Contributing Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report The U.S. Treasury Department announced Nov. 3 that it intended to borrow a record $550 billion in the fourth quarter. That represents a staggering $408 billion increase over Treasury�s borrowing estimate from early August and includes $260 billion for the recapitalization of U.S. banks. Make no mistake about it: There will be enough U.S. Treasury bonds to choke on, as the government tries to finance this debt. In the three months to Sept. 30, the Treasury Department borrowed $530 billion; in the first quarter of the New Year � which ends March 31 � it expects to borrow $368 billion. The March figure looks thoroughly optimistic; the monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays shows that the first calendar quarter of the year is generally about $80 billion to $100 billion worse than the preceding fourth quarter. Thus a borrowing figure as low as $368 billion would seem to include no bailout costs and no additional recessionary costs from the current quarter. If I had to guess, I�d assume borrowing would be about $500 billion in the first quarter, even if the U.S. banking system manages to say upright for the entire quarter � something that�s by no means certain. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) appears to agree with this. Goldman �formerly the country�s largest investment banker � said last week that in the year to September 2009 the Treasury would have to borrow about $2 trillion. That would suggest a rate of about $500 billion per quarter. That figure, too, is based on a belief that the recession remains fairly shallow, and that the new administration doesn�t have to add any major new stimulus programs � both pretty optimistic assumptions. Goldman estimates that the Treasury Department will resurrect its three-year T-note issues, will speed up the issuance of two-year notes and 10-year bonds, and will "reopen" past Treasury issues that are… Continue Reading at: The Treasury Department is Choking on Debt, But You Don’t Have To [...]

By: H. Craig Bradley

H. Craig Bradley — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 17:54:05 +0000

One thing, the CPI, on which all govt. entitlement payments are based, is controlled by the Federal government. Only “core inflation rates” are included in annual social secrurity COLA’s. So far, they have yet to incorporate the actual consumer rate of inflation into their calculations.

So, if past behavior is any guide (and in the world of government, it usually is), we can figure that TIPs actual rate of return would be less than a forecasted average annual inflation rate of 7.3%. Still, your point remains valid. Compared to conventional T-Bonds or other taxable fixed yield debt instruments, TIPs are better and safer bet in an Obama economic regime.

By: Jutia Group - Market Jitters & Political Critters

Jutia Group - Market Jitters & Political Critters — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 15:19:44 +0000

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By: Joe327

Joe327 — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:33:32 +0000

There is also the TBT which trades on the Amex.
Very nice product which shorts longterm US treasuries – TBT is leveraged so its returns correlate to twice the daily movement of long term (20+ years) treasuries.

By: » The Treasury Department is Choking on Debt, But You Don’t Have To

» The Treasury Department is Choking on Debt, But You Don’t Have To — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 10:22:33 +0000

[...] By Martin Hutchinson Contributing Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report The US Treasury Department announced Nov. 3 that it intended to borrow a record $550 billion in the fourth… Original post [...]